Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Jobless claims start out 2023 where they left off in 2022

Jobless claims start out 2023 where they left off in 2022 – as positive  – by New Deal democrat It took a little while for FRED to post this data today, but with that reason for a delay . . .  Initial jobless claims started off 2023 where they left off in 2022, with another […]

Consumer inflation remains dominated by gas prices (good) and shelter (bad)

Consumer inflation remains dominated by gas prices (good) and shelter (bad)  – by New Deal democrat Declining gas prices continue to do wondrous things for the economy. In December they declined from roughly $3.50 to $3.10/gallon. Meanwhile the phantom menace of Owners’ Equivalent Rent continues to drag “core” inflation higher. Details below. Total inflation: -0.1%m/m […]

In-depth Look at Peaking Production and Sales

An in-depth look at production and sales: evidence of peaking in both  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I took an in-depth look at employment. Today let’s take a look at two other important coincident indicators that are looked at by the NBER for guidance as to whether or not the economy is expanding or […]

The main reason for the decline in inflation since June

In which I quibble with Prof. Alan Blinder about the main reason for the decline in inflation since June  – by New Deal democrat Alan S. Blinder is getting traction for an opinion piece published in the WSJ concerning the big decline in inflation since June. He acknowledges that“ energy inflation played a meaningful role” but […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for January 2 – 6, 2023

Weekly Indicators for January 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. No big changes from the past month or so. The overall economic picture continues to be driven by the effects of the price of gas. As usual, clicking over and reading will […]

December jobs report: good headlines, but deceleration continues

December jobs report: good headlines, but deceleration continues    – by New Deal democrat If the long leading indicators all last year, and the majority of the short leading indicators from the past few months are to be believed, a recession is near. And if that is the case, we ought to see the leading […]

New Mfg orders both decline further, to readings even more on the cusp of recession

December manufacturing, new orders both decline further, to readings even more on the cusp of recession  – by New Deal democrat I described last month’s ISM manufacturing reading as being one “on the cusp of recession.” Well, this month’s reading was even cusp-ier. To recapitulate, this index has a very long and reliable history. Going back […]

New jobless claims will end 2022 on a positive note

New jobless claims end 2022 on a positive note; preview of tomorrow’s jobs report  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims started off the year – or ended last year if you are technical about it – on a positive note, declining 19,000 to a 3-month low of 204,000. The more important 4 week moving […]

November JOLTS report consistent with a continued “hot” labor market

November JOLTS report consistent with a continued “hot” labor market  – by New Deal democrat  The JOLTS report for November showed both continuing decelerating trends in some series, but overall a picture of a labor market that continued “hot.” Here’s the graph I ran one month ago of job openings, hires, quits, and total separations: […]