This week’s new and continuing jobless claims all rose off of last week’s pandemic lows, but while I suspect the downward trend has broken, I don’t think we can say so decisively yet.
On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 228,982 to 947,504. Seasonally adjusted claims rose by 137,000 to 853,000. These were the worst readings in 4 and 2 1/2 months, respectively. The 4-week moving average also rose by 35,500 to 776,000, the highest reading in a little over a month. Here is the close up since the end of July (for comparison, remember that these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in early April):
Before proclaiming DOOOM, let me point out that the YoY changes have barely budged higher in the adjusted claims, and *unadjusted* claims had their best week yet since the start of the pandemic: