– by New Deal democrat The bond market is sending the T—-p Administration, and the US government as a whole, a message. It believes the US is in a secular inflationary trend. This is not only because T—-p’s tariffs, and his boneheaded war with Iran, are inflationary, but also because last year’s Big Budget Bust-out […]
– by New Deal democrat In the past month or two, a number of times I have been asked by friends and neighbors why, if the economy feels so bad, does the stock market keep making new record highs? And is this a Boom or a Bubble? Here is what I have been telling them. There […]
New Deal Democrat: Weekly Indicators: A Negative Steepening of Bond Yields And (Maybe) Shipping Rates Summary: Unsurprisingly, the big move among the high frequency indicators in the past week was interest rates. There was also a secondary big move, which is also inflationary, and reflects the ongoing idiocy of the current Administration in Washington: international […]
– by New Deal democrat One of the things I used to harp on was that many forecasters make the mistake of simply taking an existing trend and projecting it forward. Often it is paired with the idea of “all things being equal,” i.e., that there won’t be countertrends in other sectors of the economy. […]
– by New Deal democrat Consumer spending is about 70% of the economy, and retail sales is our first wide measure of that spending. For the second month in a row, this morning’s update for April was unsurprisingly dominated by what happened at gas stations. Nominally, total retail sales rose 0.5% in April, But after […]
– by New Deal democrat I want to write an extended discussion of the April retail sales report released this morning, to tease out the effect of the spike in gas prices, but first let me do my usual weekly update on jobless claims. These have historically been a good short leading indicator for the economy, […]
The inflationary, “K”-shaped T—-p economy – by New Deal democrat There are times when the economy is undergoing such a profound shift that there is suddenly a lot to say. This is one of those times. I have been meaning to put up a post like this for several weeks. Let me at least make some […]
– by New Deal democrat As almost universally anticpated, the April CPI continued to reflect the big increase in gas prices – although it didn’t pack quite the wallop that March did. Headline CPI increased 0.6%, following March’s +0.9%, causing the YoY% gain to increase to 3.8%. Meanwhile the core measure increased 0.4%, causing the YoY% […]
– by New Deal democrat Although they constitute about 90% of all housing sales, I don’t pay too much attention to existing sales because they are not nearly so important as new home sales, since the latter involve much more economic activity in the building process, plus more landscaping and furnishings. As I’ll show below, what […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Surprisingly, most of the data is almost relentlessly positive. In particular, those things most tied up with AI — corporate profits, stock prices, and downstream consumer spending — are particularly strong. Also, American energy companies are making windfall profits from the closure of […]