- +196,000 jobs added
- U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8%
- U6 underemployment rate unchanged at 7.3%
Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession
I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall strongly suggest that an employment slowdown is coming. The following more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. With one exception, these either decelerated or outright declined.
- the average manufacturing workweek was unchanged 40.7 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI. It is down -0.6 hours from its peak during this expansion.
- Manufacturing jobs declined by -.6,000. YoY manufacturing is up 209,000, a big deceleration from last summer’s pace.
- construction jobs rose by 16,000. YoY construction jobs are up 246,000, also a big deceleration from last summer.
- temporary jobs declined by -5400. YoY these are up +44,900. These are only up 3700 in the past 5 months, a big slowdown.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less fell by -68,000 from 2,194,000 to 2,126,000. The post-recession low was set 10 months ago at 2,034,000.
Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment: