Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Weekly Indicators for August 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for August 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The continued decline in gas prices has been doing some nice things to other indicators as well. Meanwhile, manufacturing as measured by the regional Feds is getting worse. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you […]

Prices of existing homes have probably peaked

Prices of existing homes have probably peaked   By now you may already know that existing home sales declined further in July, to an 8 year low (excluding the pandemic lockdown months: This is roughly a 30% decline from their peak, and is certainly a recessionary level. But perhaps more importantly at the moment, it […]

July real retail sales show more stagnation, but slightly positive YoY

July real retail sales show more stagnation, but slightly positive YoY Consumption leads employment. Increasing demand for goods and services leads employers to hire more people to fulfill that demand. That, in a nutshell, is the biggest reason why real retail sales is one of my favorite economic indicators. In July, nominal retail sales increased […]

Industrial production heats up in July

Industrial production heats up in July If the news in the housing sector this morning was bad, the news from the King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, was quite good. Total production rose 0.6% to a new all-time high. Manufacturing production rose 0.7%, and is below its April peak by only -0.1%: Barring downward revisions, […]

Housing permits, starts, and construction telegraphing a deeper economic decline ahead

Housing permits, starts, and units under construction telegraph a deeper economic decline ahead Housing had another negative month in July. Permits (gold in the graph below) declined -1.3% to 1.674 units annualized, an 8 month low. Single family permits (red, right scale) declined -4.3% to 928,000 units annualized, the lowest since January 2020 except for […]

Housing affordability: at or near the worst this Millennium

Housing affordability: at or near the worst this Millennium The NAR calculates a monthly “housing affordability index,” which estimates the median mortgage payment for the median priced existing home based on an estimate of median household income. For June that came in at 98.5: Not only has affordability deteriorated sharply this year, but the June […]

Weekly Indicators for August 8 – 12

Weekly Indicators for August 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Gas prices continue to be the dominant driver of changes in the current situation. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you fully up to date on the economic nowcast and forecast, and also reward me […]

The long leading outlook through mid-year 2023 at Seeking Alpha

The long leading outlook through mid year 2023 at Seeking Alpha I posted the long leading outlook this last week at Seeking Alpha, and seeing as there is no big economic news today, this might be a good day to bring you up to speed. My long leading outlook for 12 months from now can […]

Jobless claims: once again, a relentless uptrend

Jobless claims: once again, a relentless uptrend I feel like a broken record at this point, as every week the trend seems more and more relentless. Initial jobless claims rose once again, by 14,000 (seriously revised down by 12,000 from last week’s reading of 260,000) to 262,000. More importantly, the 4 week average rose another […]

July consumer inflation: a tale of two disparate trends

July consumer inflation: a tale of two disparate trends  – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices were unchanged in July, as two very disparate trends canceled out one another. YoY prices increased 8.5%, below June’s multi-decade record of 9.0%: The two disparate trends are shown in the below bar graph of monthly changes since the […]