Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update  – by New Deal democrat The drought in new data ends tomorrow with consumer inflation. In preparation, let’s take a look at real aggregate payrolls. These increased 0.2% in December, one of the lower readings in the past 2 years: On a YoY basis, aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls increased […]

Scenes from the jobs report 2: unemployment rate and consumption: weak, but not recessionary

Scenes from the jobs report 2: the unemployment rate and consumption: weak, but not recessionary  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at some employment metrics from Friday’s jobs report. Today let’s look at un- (and under-) employment. Every Thursday I repeat the mantra that jobless claims lead the unemployment rate. Here are both […]

Scenes from the leading sectors of the December jobs report: sectors of weakness and strength

Scenes from the leading sectors of the December jobs report: sectors of weakness and strength  – by New Deal democrat For nearly two decades, my focus on economic reporting online has been finding and examining leading indicators; those datapoints that tell us where the economy in general, and in particular jobs and income for ordinary […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for January 1 – 5

Weekly Indicators for January 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I forgot to post this over the weekend, so here it is now: my Weekly Indicators post up at Seeking Alpha. I’ll put a post up later taking a detailed look at some aspects of Friday’s employment report.

December jobs report: consistent with a “soft landing,” despite discordance in household data

December jobs report: consistent with a “soft landing,” despite discordance in household data  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing; and more specifically:  The news on all three was good. The six-month average of […]

Initial claims: the return of “almost nobody is getting laid off”

Initial claims: the return of “almost nobody is getting laid off”  – by New Deal democrat We’re back to the virtuous scenario where almost nobody is getting laid off. Initial jobless claims for the last week of December declined -18,000 to 202,000, the lowest since October. More importantly, the 4-week average declined -4,750 to 207,750, […]

ISM manufacturing index remains in contraction, and the trend in vehicle sales may have turned down as well

ISM manufacturing index remains in contraction, and the trend in vehicle sales may have turned down as well The ISM manufacturing index, where any value below 50 indicates contraction, once again came in negative for both the total index, at 47.4, and the more leading new orders subindex, at 47.1. Both have been indicating contraction […]

New Year, same old labor market deceleration

New Year, same old labor market deceleration  – by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for November continued the same trend of labor market deceleration that we have seen since the blazing hot boom of 2021. Job openings declined -62,000 to 8.790 million, the lowest level since March 2021. Actual hires fell sharply, by […]

Construction spending continued to increase in November

Construction spending continued to increase in November  – by New Deal democrat I’m feeling a little under the weather today, so I am going to keep this brief. Total construction spending rose 0.4% in November, while residential construction rose 1.1%: Keep in mind that these are nominal numbers, affected by the cost of construction materials. […]

Final COVID-19 update for 2023: mainly good news (at least on a comparative basis)

Final COVID-19 update for 2023: mainly good news (at least on a comparative basis)  – by New Deal democrat Here is the status of the COVID-19 pandemic as of the end of 2023. It’s mainly “good news,” at least on the comparative scale. But as (now) per usual, we are in the midst of the […]