– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims, recently perhaps the most positive datapoint in the entire economy. And it continued to be so this week. New jobless claims rose 6,000 to 214,000, while the four week moving average rose 750 to 210,750. With the typical one week lag, continuing claims […]

“Updating the long leading indicators: corporate profits, and housing.”  – by New Deal democrat This week I’m spending some time updating the non-financial long leading indicators. As I wrote on Monday, I haven’t updated these in a while in large part because the chaos coming out of Washington has blindsided much of the economic data. There’s […]

 – by New Deal democrat Consumer spending is about 70% of the economy, and retail sales is our first wide measure of that spending. This morning’s update for March (still after all these months delayed about a week compared with the schedule before last autumn’s government shutdown) was unsurprisingly dominated by what happened at gas stations.  […]

– by New Deal democrat So much of the changes to the economy has been dictated by the whims of the White House that it has not made much sense to throughly update the suite of long leading indicators in many months. After all, why chart their incipient effects when they are consistently being overtaken by […]

My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The biggest news this week is how sharply oil prices backed off of their recent highs, as speculators figure that all will soon be back to (at least close to) the status quo ante in the Persian Gulf. Secondarily, the Empire State and Philly Manufacturing Indexes continued […]

“March industrial production mainly continues stagnant trend”  – by New Deal democrat Since I didn’t get to it yesterday, let me say a few words about yesterday’s industrial production report for March this morning. I used to call this “the King of Coincident Indicators,” but with the shrinking of manufacturing as a share of the US […]

Jobless claims continue to be the most positive metric in the array of economic indicators   – by New Deal democrat The new regime of lower jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -11,000 to 207,000, while the four week moving average rose 500 to 209,750. Both of these remain within a stone’s throw […]

“Stock market at new highs, even with Strait of Hormuz still closed. What is Wall Street thinking?!?”  – by New Deal democrat As I type this, there are two particularly salient facts:  1. Although the US and Iran are not lobbing bombs at one another at the moment, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.  2. […]

 – by New Deal democrat Sometimes there just isn’t much drama in economic numbers, and that was certainly the case for this month’s edition of existing home sales. As a mild refresher, even though they constitute about 90% of all housing sales, existing sales are not nearly so important as new home sales, since the latter […]

– by New Deal democrat Today I want to step back from the daily data and give you my Big Picture overview of the economy, particularly because Friday’s inflation report has materially changed an important component. To begin with, as I have been saying off and on for months, the economy has been essentially flat, and […]