– by New Deal democrat “Trump take egg” was a social media meme popularized by MTSW at Bluesky, highlighting prices that T—-p had promised would come down, but increased instead. The spike in egg prices was due to avian flu, but when it comes to internet memes, nevermind. Which is by way of introduction to saying that […]

 – by New Deal democrat Along with the weekly update of retail sals, new jobless claims continue to be the most positive economic data in the entire specturm. Last week new cliams increased 5,000 to 210,000, which is about average for the entire post-pandemic period. The only other time they were this low was 2018-19, […]

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic data today, so let me update something I posted last week, in which I warned readers to expect a shock in the next CPI report.  I wrote that “based on past history and using conservative assumptions, the model forecasts a 1.8% increase in CPI between March and […]

 – by New Deal democrat Something not just unusual, but unprecedented has happened in the bond market this year. Normally, when an inverted yield curve (where earlier maturing bonds yield more than later maturing ones) regularizes, or un-inverts (where yields get higher the later the maturing), it is because the Fed has lowered rates sufficiently […]

 – by New Deal democrat This morning the construction spending report for January was released (note that this is still about 3 weeks later than usual, so last autumn’s government shutdown continues to reverberate in the data). In the past I have used it to help track the long leading sector of housing, but in the […]

– by New Deal democrat Occasionally on Sundays I have posted on things other than the economy. Some dramatic poll results I saw this past week called out for such a post. A popular poster over at Bluesky named Micah posted what comes pretty close to my overall view of the 2024 Presidential campaign: But […]

– by New Deal democrat Prepare for the CPI to increase over 1.5%, and perhaps even 2.5%, just by the end of April. That’s the message conveyed by the huge spike in gas prices so far this month due to the war with Iran. Let me start with the blockbuster graph. This is the monthly […]

– by New Deal democrat This week, in addition to my usual look at jobless claims, especially in view of my post earlier this week breaking down the components of aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls,  I want to compare them with several other indicators of increased joblessness in terms of their expansion and pre-recession dynamics.  First, let’s look […]

– by New Deal democrat Even before the Iran war started almost three weeks ago, the US economy was in something of a stagflationary scenario. Let’s take a look at how the war, and in particular the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has impacted that, starting with the direct effects and then following the […]

– by New Deal democrat There’s no major economic news today, so let me take this opportunity in view of last week’s update to the CPI, to update one of my favorite labor market indicators: real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls. As a brief refresher, over the past 60 years this has been a very good and reliable […]