– by New Deal democrat While inflation and interest rates took a whack at some of the data, most of the financial-related series (like the yield curve in the bond market and credit conditions) remain very positive. And consumer spending, likely by the uppermost income groups, actually posted one of its very best YoY comparisons in […]

– by New Deal democrat Jobless claims, along with stock market prices and upscale consumer spending (and recently, manufacturing orders) are one of the few important metrics holding up the economy. And the short summary of this morning’s data is: the new regime of very low claims continued. Initial claims did rise 16,000 to a still […]

 – by New Deal democrat As anticipated, the March CPI packed a wallop, up 0.9% for the month and causing the YoY% gain to increase to 3.3%, while core CPI was a tame 0.2% with a YoY% gain of 2.6%. Because of the impact of that big number, I am departing from my usual format to […]

“Recessionary signals in February personal income and spending, but some bright spots as well”  – by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detailed look at consumption by the broad range of American households. And since consumption leads employment, they also […]

 – by New Deal democrat While there isn’t any big economic news today, there certainly was action overnight in response to the latest TACO. As I type this, oil is back down to $90/barrel, and stock futures are soaring. This for something (correctly I think) framed as a “fragile cease fire” by J.D. Vance. But […]

– by New Deal democrat As I’ve previously noted a number of times, one of the more surprising developments in the past few months has been the resilience of manufacturing. After taking a beating following “Liberation Day” one year ago, companies adapted and resumed production if anything at an even more brisk pace. That was apparent […]

– by New Deal democrat Back in the “before” days, as in January, before the Iran war, I wrote about how low gas prices were actually a tailwind for the economy. Because since the start of the Millennium over 25 years ago, they had only been so low compared with average hourly wages on only 3 […]

After zigging upward last week, interest rates zagged downward – but not as much – this week, enough to change the ratings on some interest rate sensitive indicators, like mortgages. And consumers continue to spend, despite all the shocks and sluggishness in things like the labor market in the past 15 months. Partial of “Weekly […]

 – by New Deal democrat I described two months ago as “the month the birds came home to roost.” Last month, pace Edgar Allen Poe, I said the birds were screeching “recession!” This month, Poe’s birds decided to play with us, screeching instead: “Nevermind!” This was a good report with mainly good internals, with one […]

 – by New Deal democrat  With the stock market flailing around trying to keep its head above water, jobless claims along with consumer spending are the only two metrics that solidly support a continued economic expansion (ok, maybe ISM manufacturing is trending in that way as well). But to the point of this post: last […]