If you have been reading and earlier commentary Oil Prices are Up, you will get a pretty idea of what is happening with Oil Prices since Trump decided to bomb Iran. Just to point out, here are the top three countries by oil reserves. Top 3 Breakdown: 1. Venezuela ($\sim$303 billion barrels), 2. Saudi Arabia […]
– by New Deal democrat Most official data series remain about one month behind their normal schedule, despite the government shutdown having ended over three months ago. Thus the ISM manufacturing and services reports, as well as the regional Fed manufacturing and services reports, remain the most timely overall barometers of the economy. In the past […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Last week commodity prices, and in particular oil, rose sharply again – probably due to what has been unfolding in the Middle East. And the US$ is still losing value. Meanwhile withholding tax payments have faltered somewhat again. Good times! As usual, clicking […]
– by New Deal democrat Before I get to the main object of this post, there was a little kerfluffle in the financial markets this morning about a “hot” producer price index number. Specifically, PPI for final demand increased 0.5% in January. Commodity prices also increased 0.3%. The YoY% changes were 2.8%, although raw commodity […]
– by New Deal democrat As we move further into the calendar year, we are getting more clarity on what has been happening with jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at these because historically they have been a good short leading indicator for the unemployment rate and more broadly for the economy as a whole. […]
– by New Deal democrat In a landmark paper almost 20 years ago, UCLA Prof. Edward Leamer wrote that “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that paper he concluded: In the years before recessions . . . consumers contribute a total of 65% of the leading weakness. In contrast, business spending contributes only 10%…. The temporal […]
– by New Deal democrat In the past month, all of the various home price indexes have confirmed abating inflation in the shelter sector. This morning the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were updated through December. Last week we got price information for new houses, and earlier in the month for existing homes. In this […]
– by New Deal democrat Last week’s Q4 GDP release, as usual, updated two long leading indicators: proprietors’ income (a placeholder for corporate profits, which won’t be reported until next month at the earliest), and private residential fixed investment, a proxy for housing. They were of particular interest this time because, while the normalized yield […]
– by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detailed look at consumption by the broad range of American households. And since consumption leads employment, they also give us an idea of what is likely to happen with regard to jobs in […]
– by New Deal democrat There is more and more accumulating evidence that manufacturing, at least in the aggregate, is something close to Booming. That message was apparent in yesterday’s durable goods orders report for December. While the headline number (blue in the graph below) declined -1.4%, the three month average for this very volatile […]