– by New Deal democrat Occasionally on Sundays I have posted on things other than the economy. Some dramatic poll results I saw this past week called out for such a post. A popular poster over at Bluesky named Micah posted what comes pretty close to my overall view of the 2024 Presidential campaign: But […]

– by New Deal democrat Prepare for the CPI to increase over 1.5%, and perhaps even 2.5%, just by the end of April. That’s the message conveyed by the huge spike in gas prices so far this month due to the war with Iran. Let me start with the blockbuster graph. This is the monthly […]

– by New Deal democrat This week, in addition to my usual look at jobless claims, especially in view of my post earlier this week breaking down the components of aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls,  I want to compare them with several other indicators of increased joblessness in terms of their expansion and pre-recession dynamics.  First, let’s look […]

– by New Deal democrat Even before the Iran war started almost three weeks ago, the US economy was in something of a stagflationary scenario. Let’s take a look at how the war, and in particular the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has impacted that, starting with the direct effects and then following the […]

– by New Deal democrat There’s no major economic news today, so let me take this opportunity in view of last week’s update to the CPI, to update one of my favorite labor market indicators: real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls. As a brief refresher, over the past 60 years this has been a very good and reliable […]

 – by New Deal democrat Probably my biggest theme right now is that most of the economy is either recessionary or at least on the cusp of recessionary. But this has been counterbalanced by AI data center- related spending, and the stock market boom and wealth effect it gave rise to.  Last month I highlighted how […]

 – by New Deal democrat Before I get to the main event, a couple of quick comments on the other data released so far this morning:  1. Real GDP as revised only grew at 0.7% annualized in the 4th Quarter of last year. This is often, but by no means always, recessionary. And since there was […]

“Housing permits, starts, and construction: signs of both imminent recession and ‘green shoots’”  – by New Deal democrat This morning’s important data on housing construction contained two apparently contradictory trends: on the one hand, it continues to be – even more intensely – consistent with an imminent or ongoing recesssion. On the other hand, it suggests […]

“Jobless claims continue at very low levels (plus an update on tech enshittification)”  – by New Deal democrat I’ll post on the updated housing situation later this morning. Meanwhile, before I get to jobless claims, a brief update on the tech situation. It turns out that I am not the only person having this problem. Basically […]

February CPI: a likely last hurrah for relatively tame consumer price increases  – by New Deal democrat Much like last month, February benefited from shelter and gas prices – for a change – pulling in the same, disinflating, direction. Needless to say, I do not expect that to be the case for March! But in the […]