– by New Deal democrat Later this morning I’ll discuss yesterday’s positive durable goods orders release, and in that context, I’ll also have more to say about the likely reason why industrial production also improved so much. Tomorrow we’ll get personal income and spending, and new home sales, both from December, as well as the […]
– by New Deal democrat When I updated this information in September, I wrote that “a puzzling relationship this year has been that the housing data has been classically recessionary for a number of months, and yet the economy has not rolled over.” I concluded that update by noting that while the report was “very much […]
The deluge of data resumes tomorrow with housing permits and starts, industrial production, and durable goods orders. In the meantime, let me make a few “big picture” observations of the economy, and in particular, the short and longer term trends in inflation and interest rates. – by New Deal democrat 1. Short term inflation A very […]
– by New Deal democrat Today is Presidents’ Day, so there are no official economic data releases; and there will be no significant releases tomorrow either, before a torrent of both timely and delayed data from Wednesday through Friday, including GDP for Q4. In the meantime, because of the January updates for employment and inflation last […]
No, it is not a mistake by putting the title at the head of this post (above) and a second time below. I did not want the AB readers to think I was writing this commentary about January CPI results. This report belongs solely to New Deal democrat. Oh, I did write or report on […]
– by New Deal democrat Before I get to the main point at hand, let me make a quick note about this morning’s existing home sales report for January: it was more of the same. Sales remained within the sideways range they have been in for nearly the past three years; prices were nearly flat YoY, […]
– by New Deal democrat Unresolved post-pandemic seasonality likely continues to rear its head. This is a probable explanation for yesterday’s strong monthly gain in employment, and it appears to be behind the trend in this morning’s jobless claims report as well. Later this morning as promised yesterday I will discuss at some length the nature […]
– by New Deal democrat This is the month the birds came home to roost, at least for the year 2025. While the month over month numbers were almost all positive, some strongly so (a repeat of what we saw last January as well, so beware unresolved seasonality), the benchmark revisions were brutal. Which is likely […]
– by New Deal democrat Real retail sales, one of my favorite broad-economy indicators, was updated through December this morning — still stale by one month, as under normal circumstances January’s numbers would have been released this week. Still, with consumer spending being about 70% of the entire economy, this is one of the most […]
– by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news until Wednsday’s jobs report, as to which Scott Bessent gave an interview this morning on CNBC which amounted to, “Don’t Panic!!!” Which I am sure inspires confidence in everybody (I’ve been expecting downward revisions to much of last year as part of the annual benchmarking, so […]