– by New Deal democrat With the stock market flailing around trying to keep its head above water, jobless claims along with consumer spending are the only two metrics that solidly support a continued economic expansion (ok, maybe ISM manufacturing is trending in that way as well). But to the point of this post: last […]
– by New Deal democrat Unresolved post-pandemic seasonality likely continues to rear its head. This is a probable explanation for yesterday’s strong monthly gain in employment, and it appears to be behind the trend in this morning’s jobless claims report as well. Later this morning as promised yesterday I will discuss at some length the nature […]
– by New Deal democrat This week’s update in jobless claims was decidedly mixed. Initial claims were unchanged at 248,000. Nevertheless this level was only equaled once and exceeded once in the past year. The four week moving average increased 5,000 to 240,500, the highest number since September 2023. With the typical one week delay, continuing […]
– by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims continued to be well-behaved last week. Per this morning’s report, they declined -9.000 to 215,000, while the four week moving average declined -2,500 to 220,750. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims increased 41,000 to 1.885 million – which, despite the big weekly increase, is right in […]
– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims. These are a short leading labor market indicator. Also, it is likely that the firings in the federal labor force will shortly be reflected in this data. This week initial claims rose 5,000 to 219,000, while the four week average declined -1,000 […]
A Refresher on Why I pay so much attention to them . . . – by New Deal democrat This might be a good time to reiterate why I post each week on jobless claims, and what my system is. Initial jobless claims in particular are a recognized leading indicator. In fact, they are one […]
Jobless claims: neutral – with an extra grain of salt – by New Deal democrat As I cautioned last weekend in my “Weekly Indicators” update, we have entered that period of the year where Holiday seasonality means take everything with at least a little grain of salt. For example, this year Thanksgiving was almost one […]
– by New Deal democrat You may recall that last week I wrote that beginning this week and for the next 6+ months, initial claims would be up against some very tough comparisons from 2023 and would be the ultimate true test of whether there has been unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in the numbers. Well, this […]