– by New Deal democrat Housing data for June resumed this morning with existing home sales. Let me start with my usual caveat: although they typically constitute about 90% of all sales are the least important for forecasting purposes, since the main thing that happens is only a change in ownership, and therefore they have much less economic […]
– by New Deal democrat I concluded last month’s post on construction spending by writing “Putting this report together with this morning’s other report on manufacturing from ISM, it appears the goods-producing part of the economy as a whole is very slightly contracting. It will be interesting to see if this is reflected in a decline […]
– by New Deal democrat Jobless claims continue to tell us two things: (1) the jobs market continues to slowly weaken, but (2) it is not recessionary. This week I’ve changed my graphing scheme slightly, to emphasize the less noisy four week moving average of initial claims, to better show the residual post-COVID seasonality, and to […]
Charles Gaba (former Michigan neighbor) at ACA Signups gives an excellent take on what is going to happen once subsidies disappear at year end, cuts to Medicaid, and increased premiums for ACA insurance. And yes, I said increased ACA insurance premiums. Charles states there will be people leaving the ACA due to premium increases. I […]
– by New Deal democrat Because no data will be released tomorrow due to the Federal holiday, I am going to defer a deeper look at the very important housing sector until then. Today I’ll just note the top line indications from this morning’s housing construction data. As per usual, permits are much less noisy than […]
– by New Deal democrat Today’s second report was for industrial production, including its important manufacturing component. The data for May was mixed, as total production (blue) declined -0.2%, while manufacturing production (red) increased 0.1% In March I wrote that “I suspect the big increases in February and March in manufacturing, like this morning’s retail […]
Weekly Indicators for June 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there were no significant changes in the indicators, there is evidence of a downturn in consumer spending compared with the tariff front-running of several months ago, as well as a continued decline […]
– by New Deal democrat It is very difficult to track the impacts of Tariff-palooza! on the US supply chain, due to delays in any sort of accurate reporting. But below is the best overall picture I have been able to decipher. Mainly the delay is focused on the trucking industry, because rail is very concentrated […]
– by New Deal democrat This week’s update in jobless claims was decidedly mixed. Initial claims were unchanged at 248,000. Nevertheless this level was only equaled once and exceeded once in the past year. The four week moving average increased 5,000 to 240,500, the highest number since September 2023. With the typical one week delay, continuing […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Very slowly the effects of price increases and supply disruptions from the tariffs are making their way into the data. This week was the first suggestion it may have begun to affect consumer spending. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you […]