Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Tabulated initial and continuing state unemployment claims continue rangebound

 – by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated notwithstanding, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Then by applying the same adjustment as was used for the […]

New 21 month high in the four-week average of initial claims; and new 3.5 year high in continuing claims. But no recession signal

 – by New Deal democrat This week’s update in jobless claims was decidedly mixed. Initial claims were unchanged at 248,000. Nevertheless this level was only equaled once and exceeded once in the past year. The four week moving average increased 5,000 to 240,500, the highest number since September 2023. With the typical one week delay, continuing […]

Continuing claims continue near 50 year lows

Continuing claims continue near 50 year lows as the Omicron tsunami continues to recede, NDd [Programming note: Hopefully I’ll put up a coronavirus update later today.] Initial claims (blue) declined 18,000 to 215,000 (vs. the pandemic low of 188,000 on December 4). The 4 week average (red) declined 6,000 to 230,500 (vs. the pandemic low […]