– by New Deal democrat Last Friday I summarized the jobs report as “show[ing] a contracting jobs market in all important metrics except the headlines (which, for the record, were positive). …[A]lmost] all of the important leading metrics … were negative, [including the] goods-producing sectors – manufacturing, construction (including residential construction), and temporary jobs – declined, as […]
– by New Deal democrat First, usually the week following the employment report is very quiet, and I put up “scenes from the report” with some important graphs. With all the releases catching up on old data this week, I haven’t done that; but because jobless claims are the only significant data this morning, I intend […]
– by New Deal democrat Although the government shutdown is long over, the most recent government housing updates have been for October, I.e., two months stale. Thus the NAR’s existing home sales report has temporarily become among our best look at housing sales, prices, and inventorythe housing market. As per my context all this year, after […]
– by New Deal democrat Real retail sales, one of my favorite broad-economy indicators, was updated through November this morning, making only one month stale. This, along with real personal spending, is one of the two most important indicators which have been missing, as we know the jobs and real income have been stagnant, but […]
– by New Deal democrat New home sales were updated for the second time since the shutdown, with data only through October – i.e., stale. The silver lining is that this is a long leading indicator, so it remains of value. Normally I save inventory for last, but in view of the importance of new […]
– by New Deal democrat We finally got our first “regular” CPI report since September this morning. Caution is still warranted, however, because the October-November kludge is still present in the base from which December’s monthly change was calculated. But the bottom line is that the series’ all reverted to their pre-shutdown trend, with the […]
– by New Deal democrat On Friday housing permits, starts, and units under construction were finally reported for the first time in four months, since September’s report for August. The bad news is that the report only updated through October, so we are still two months behind. The very qualified good news is that, since […]
– by New Deal democrat [Note: Housing permits, starts, and units under construction were also updated this morning for September and October. I will post my remarks on this report on Monday; but in summary I can say it remained recessionary, with some possible “green shoots” that may indicate a bottom.] This morning’s jobs report for […]
– by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for November was not stale inasmuch as it was at best delayed by a week or two. But nevertheless, since it was for November it remains somewhat old news that can only help to confirm other data we have already received. Last month I concluded that the […]
– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims, which are the best up-to-the-moment measure of the labor market. Initial claims rose 8,000 to 208,000, while the four week moving average declined -7,250 to 211,750. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.914 million: Number of Initial […]