Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for October 2-6 2023

If you get a chance, wander over to Seeking Alpha and read New Deal democrat’s very thorough take on the economy. You can set up a fee, limited account there. AB Weekly Indicators for October 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While interest […]

An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level

An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level  – by New Deal democrat As per my reporting earlier this week, my focus this month was on whether wage and jobs growth continue to decelerate, and whether the unemployment rate would remain “sticky” at its higher, 3.8%, […]

Very strong initial jobless claims probably the result of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality

Very strong initial jobless claims probably the result of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality  –  by New Deal democrat It continues to be reasonably clear that there is some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in initial jobless claims, which nose-dived last September and rebounded during October. So far the same pattern is evident this year. To wit, initial claims […]

The current economic “big picture”: by no means are we out of the woods

The current economic “big picture”: by no means are we out of the woods  – by New Deal democrat There is no particularly important economic news out today, so let me take this opportunity to step back and give you more of a “big picture” view of my current thinking. To the extent there is […]

August JOLTS report: a pause in deceleration, but the trend remains intact

August JOLTS report: a pause in deceleration, but the trend remains intact  – by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded my post on the July JOLTS report’s sharp declines by noting that “None of these statistics move in a straight line, so it would be a mistake to project this report’s relatively big moves […]

Manufacturing and construction have the most positive reports all year

Manufacturing and construction have the most positive reports all year  – by New Deal democrat As usual, the monthly data starts out with reports on the two most important production sectors of the economy, namely manufacturing (for September) and construction (for August). For a change, the news was mainly positive. Let’s start with manufacturing. The […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for September 25 – 29

Weekly Indicators for September 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Interest rates continued to head higher, with mortgage rates briefly going over 7.5%. With the long leading indicators having worsened, With the decline in commodity (including gas) prices over, I am looking for […]

Consumer spending holds up well in August, despite ending of disinflation

Consumer spending holds up well in August, despite ending of disinflation  – by New Deal democrat  As I have repeated for the past several months, in the current economy the personal spending and income report is just as important as the jobs report. That’s because, despite the downturn in manufacturing production and many parts […]

Initial jobless claims remain higher on a YoY basis

Initial jobless claims remain higher on a YoY basis, but do not suggest near term recession  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 211,000. The 4 week moving average declined -6,250 to 211,000. With a one week lag, continuing claims rose 42,000 to 1.670 million: Although this appears very […]

Why the public still views inflation as a major problem, despite the official numbers

Why the public still views inflation as a major problem, despite the official numbers  – by New Deal democrat This is the topic I indicated last week I wanted to write about more at length.  Paul Krugman wrote last week about the disconnect between most economists, who see inflation declining, and voters, who still see […]