– by New Deal democrat First things first: the jobs data we received this morning, like the official data reported earlier this week, is “stale news.” The period canvassed giving rise to this data was over two months ago. As such, aside from the fuller texture which it provides to us, the most important question is […]
– by New Deal democrat While this morning’s much delayed September jobs report was the big news of the day, the DoL did resume their normal weekly reporting of unemployment claims, so let me in turn resume my normal weekly note of them. Initial claims declined -8,000 to 220,000 while the four week moving average […]
– by New Deal democrat There was no new official data reported this morning, including the normal monthly report on housing permits, starts, and construction. Yesterday the Department of Labor did partially update several weeks of jobless claims data, which helps us estimate what might happen with the unemployment rate when the September jobs report is […]
As with yesterday, the good news is that important official economic data is being reported again. The bad news is that it is very stale, as in covering last August. – by New Deal democrat Still, one important area that private data did not cover well during the shutdown was orders and spending on durable goods, […]
– by New Deal democrat The good news is, with the end of the government shutdown, economic data reporting resumed this morning. The bad news is, we are now in the latter part of November, and the construction spending report issued this morning was for all the way back in August. In fact, the last time […]
– by New Deal democrat Hopefully for the last time . . . As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the unadjusted number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated based on reporting by the States, plus DC, and Puerto Rico. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The trends of strong retail spending, a weak US$, and strength in commodity prices all continue. But in recent weeks withholding tax payments have waned. While there can be a number of causes for that, it definitely merits a caution flag as to […]
– by New Deal democrat Earlier this week, I wrote about 4 current shocks to the US economy (tariffs, medical insurance increases, SNAP payments, and AI related layoffs), but I should have included a 5th as well: the effect of the end of the student loan repayment moratorium. As a quick refresher, the Biden Administration enacted […]
– by New Deal democrat Although the temporary continuing resolution was signed last night, reopening the Federal government through January, needless to say the reporting of economic statistics has not yet resumed, meaning that this morning’s scheduled reports on consumer inflation and retail sales for October were not released. So we must continue to rely on […]
– by New Deal democrat From Avika M. Cohen, “Litigation Disaster tour guide”: ——- Ppl need to understand what’s happening here. The GOP response to the shutdown was: You’re gonna cave, or we’re going to hurt vulnerable people by shutting off SNAP. The Dems, unwilling to let that happen, caved. Having watched that, the GOP is […]