Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Vehicle sales, residential, and manufacturing plant construction

Vehicle sales and residential and manufacturing plant construction continue to outweigh general manufacturing downturn  –  by New Deal democrat No important economic news today, but on Friday in addition to the employment report we did get our typical 1st of the month snapshot of manufacturing, vehicle sales, and construction, so let’s look at each. The ISM […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for August 28 – September 1

Weekly Indicators for August 28 – September 1 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The long leading indicators continue to forecast that a hard landing is out there, while the short leading indicators – aided by a sharp increase in consumer spending in the past few […]

August jobs report: deceleration shows up in spades

August jobs report: deceleration shows up in spades  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, particularly manufacturing and residential construction jobs, but also total construction and goods production jobs as a whole; as well as watching for the increase in jobless claims to translate into a higher […]

YoY initial claims restart the yellow caution flag, suggest unemployment will rise towards 4.0%

YoY initial claims restart the yellow caution flag, suggest unemployment will rise towards 4.0%  – by New Deal democrat I’ll post on personal income and spending a little later. But first, initial jobless claims declined -4,000 to 228,000 last week. The more important 4 week average increased 250 to 237,500. With a one week delay, […]

July JOLTS report: is the game of reverse musical chairs in employment ending?

July JOLTS report: is the game of reverse musical chairs in employment ending?  – by New Deal democrat For the past 18 months, I’ve likened the job market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more chairs put out by potential employers than there are job applicants willing to fill them. Also […]

Frozen homeowners means record low inventory, meaning existing home prices have stopped declining

Frozen homeowners mean record low inventory, meaning existing home prices have stopped declining  – by New Deal democrat Before discussing this morning’s reports on existing home prices, let’s start with a look at new listings and total active listings of housing inventory, which are very instructive: This information is not seasonally adjusted, and obviously follows a […]

Fed rate hikes in the face of declining commodity prices: an analysis of 4 precedents

Fed rate hikes in the face of declining commodity prices: an analysis of 4 precedents  – by New Deal democrat We live in interesting commodity times. Over the weekend, my latest piece at Seeking Alpha highlighted the strong contrary pulls of higher interest rates and lower commodity prices. While not unique, as we’ll see below, the […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators August 21-25 2023

Weekly Indicators for August 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat While I was away on vacation, the high frequency data continued to pour in. And so my Weekly Indicators post for the week is up at Seeking Alpha. There continue to be some very negative signs associated with interest rates, including important […]

Initial Jobless Claims, Continue to Suggest Slow Weaking

Initial claims improve weekly, continue to suggest slow weaking  – by New Deal democrat [Reminder: I’m still traveling, so with no economic news, don’t expect a post tomorrow.] Initial jobless claims declined to 230,000 last week. The more important 4 week average increased to 236,750. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined slightly to […]

Unlike homeowners, home builders can alter their product and pricing point

Unlike homeowners, home builders can alter their product and (much more flexibly) their price point  – by News Deal democrat Yesterday I noted that home builders, unlike existing homeowners trying to sell their existing house, have flexibility in the size and amenities of the house they will build, as well as the price they are […]