– by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated notwithstanding, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Then by applying the same adjustment as was used for the […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This is a good time for a reminder that very little of the high frequency data has been affected by the federal government shutdown, because almost all of it comes from the Fed or regional Feds, States, and private sources. That data continues […]

– by New Deal democrat Wow, some actual new economic data on which to report – how refreshing! To be clear, the only reason this was reported is that it was necessary for the calculation of the annual cost of living increases to Social Security checks. Had these been frozen there would have been a “million […]

 – by New Deal democrat With the continuing desert of official data, the NAR’s existing home sales report – which normally is of secondary importance – temporarily becomes our best look at the housing market.  To repeat what I’ve mentioned an number of times in the past, after the Fed began hiking rates in 2022, mortgage […]

 – by New Deal democrat The government shutdown is continuing. The only significant national economic news will be the NAR’s existing home sales report on Thursday. Additionally, the remaining regional Fed surveys will come at the end of this week or next week. And, as I am still on vacation, don’t be surprised if I play […]

“Initial claims lower than one year ago, an important positive point for the economy”  – by New Deal democrat As per my introduction the past several weeks, despite the government shutdown we can recreate the initial and continuing claims data, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the […]

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. About 90% of the high frequency data comes from non-Federal government sources and so is unaffected by the shutdown. It continues to signal no particular stress. But there is no denying that the loss of the monthly official data series (for things like […]

– by New Deal democrat We continue our exercise in flying blind (into terrain?) as the government shutdown prevented the release of housing permits, starts, and construction this morning; and the Fed did not have the data necessary to update industrial production and capacity utilization. The only current information we have on the housing sector is […]

– by New Deal democrat Under normal circumstances, this would be the morning I would slice and dice the first important consumer data for the month: retail sales. With the government shutdown continuing with no end in sight, all we have are several dart-throws. The Chicago Fed’s final Advanced Retail Trade report for September indicated +0.5% […]

– by New Deal democrat I am currently on vacation, and as the shutdown continues with no end in sight, the only sources of economic data are from the Fed and its regional banks, the States (unemployment claims and sporadic updates on tax withholding), and private sources.  In other words, I might play hooky several days […]