September producer prices confirm economic tailwind has ended – by New Deal democrat My strong suspicion has been that the tailwind of declining commodity prices, typified by the big decline in gas prices in late 2022 is what allowed the US economy to grow so well so far this year, blunting the effects of major […]
A note on Middle Eastern turmoil and gas and oil prices – by New Deal democrat While we wait for producer and consumer inflation data later this week, here’s a note about gas prices. With the newest shock in the Middle East, conventional wisdom is that the price of oil and gas will spike. And […]
Scenes from the September jobs report: a look at leading indicators – by New Deal democrat Today is a holiday, so no new economic news. So let’s take a look at some of the leading indicators I was tracking last week for the employment report, and some leading indicators for the economy within that report […]
If you get a chance, wander over to Seeking Alpha and read New Deal democrat’s very thorough take on the economy. You can set up a fee, limited account there. AB Weekly Indicators for October 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While interest […]
An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level – by New Deal democrat As per my reporting earlier this week, my focus this month was on whether wage and jobs growth continue to decelerate, and whether the unemployment rate would remain “sticky” at its higher, 3.8%, […]
Very strong initial jobless claims probably the result of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality – by New Deal democrat It continues to be reasonably clear that there is some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in initial jobless claims, which nose-dived last September and rebounded during October. So far the same pattern is evident this year. To wit, initial claims […]
The current economic “big picture”: by no means are we out of the woods – by New Deal democrat There is no particularly important economic news out today, so let me take this opportunity to step back and give you more of a “big picture” view of my current thinking. To the extent there is […]
August JOLTS report: a pause in deceleration, but the trend remains intact – by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded my post on the July JOLTS report’s sharp declines by noting that “None of these statistics move in a straight line, so it would be a mistake to project this report’s relatively big moves […]
Manufacturing and construction have the most positive reports all year – by New Deal democrat As usual, the monthly data starts out with reports on the two most important production sectors of the economy, namely manufacturing (for September) and construction (for August). For a change, the news was mainly positive. Let’s start with manufacturing. The […]
Weekly Indicators for September 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Interest rates continued to head higher, with mortgage rates briefly going over 7.5%. With the long leading indicators having worsened, With the decline in commodity (including gas) prices over, I am looking for […]