– by New Deal democrat Although not published by the federal government itself, the Fed’s measure of industrial production relies on some federal data, and thus it was not updated during the government shutdown – which means that this morning’s update is likewise stale, being for September. Industrial production has been much less central to the […]

If I am reading New Deal democrat’s commentary correctly today , we definitely are flying blind. We are not getting all the economic detail we need to know which way the wind is blowing economically. Not a good situation to be in and Republicans appear to be ok with this scenario. It can because they […]

“November ISM manufacturing report indicates deepening stagflationary contraction”  – by New Deal democrat Normally we begin each month with reports on both construction spending and manufacturing. But even though th federal shutdown has been over for more than three weeks, data releases have been both very sparse and very stale. In particular, construction spending for August […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. In the aggregate, consumer spending remains robust. On the other hand, as I pointed out yesterday with my aggregation of the various regional Fed reports on manufacturing and services, the largest sector of the US economy appears to be stagnant or even shrinking […]

“Regional Fed manufacturing and services indexes for November show manufacturing rebound, continued rampant price pressures, and stagnant employment”  – by New Deal democrat Although the federal government has resumed reporting economic data, it is spotty and woefully stale, from August and September. As a result, the two big sources for current data remain the regional Feds […]

– by New Deal democrat Note: there was a good advance manufacturers’ new orders report for September this morning. I’m going to save discussing it until Friday, when I dissect the regional Fed reports, which are now all in through November. Neither building permits and starts, nor new residential sales, were updated this morning, which means […]

– by New Deal democrat With the end of the government shutdown, jobless claims are fully updated and back on their regular schedule. And this week, there was more of the same. Initial jobless claims were down -6,000 to a very low 216,000, and the four week average declined -1,000 to 223,750. With the typical […]

 – by New Deal democrat First, a scheduling note. Several data releases have been made this morning. Several more delayed releases having to do with housing *might* be released tomorrow. Alas, the very late Q3 GDP report is not going to be released at all until the end of December. There will be no releases on […]

Scenes from the very tardy September jobs report  – by New Deal democrat An opening comment: it is an abomination that the US government treated its statistical agencies as doing expendable work. Thus, after over 85 years of continuity, there will never be an unemployment rate, nor a consumer inflation reading, for October. Which means we […]

– by New Deal democrat Although the government shutdown is over, most data points – including all having to do with housing – have not been updated, which means that alternate data sources, including the NAR’s existing home sales report, have temporarily become our best look at the housing market.  As per my context all this […]