Weekly Indicators for December 8 – 12 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there were no significant changes in the ratings, two big stories stand out: (1) the nearly total re-normalization of the yield curve in response to Fed interest rate cuts; and (2) evidence of further deterioration […]
– by New Deal democrat This week’s update of initial and continuing jobless claims is a demonstration of two frames of seasonality: one in the immediate term, and one longer term stretching back several years. When we parse them out together, they suggest there may have been somewhat of a regime change that began in July […]
– by New Deal democrat Today is one day of quiet before a slew of updated statistics, including the November jobs and inflation reports, are to be reported next week (it is unclear whether others originally scheduled for next week, like building permits and starts, will also be updated). There was some housing and rental inventory […]
– by New Deal democrat The employment cost index, which was updated this morning through Q3, typically gets much less attention than the monthly payrolls report. But in this circumstance it is entitled to more notice, since the monthly data has only been posted through September as well. Additionally, one important advantange of the Employment Cost […]
– by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for October is now the most current official monthly indicator for the jobs sector. And it was emphatically not good. In fact, it was red flag recessionary. In the past year, in contrast to much other data in the jobs sector, the JOLTS reports had been very […]
– by New Deal democrat On Friday I noted that real personal spending on goods, especially durable goods, had declined in September. If we have reached a tipping point on that metric, a recession in the near future looks much more likely, even as spending on services continues. Late last week we also got further evidence […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha There are some minor changes, but no big turns in trends. But the recent change in trend that has been further reinforced is the sharp deceleration in growth in withholding tax payments that began in October. The bulk of the evidence suggests that […]
– by New Deal democrat Personal income and consumption is one of the two big monthly reports on the state of the average American, in addition to the jobs report. This month it has the added virtue of being the “least stale” monthly report, as it was issued only five weeks later than scheduled. Ever since […]
– by New Deal democrat The good news is, we are back to the normal weekly jobless claims releases. The really good news is that this week’s number, except for one week in 2022, was a new 50 year low! The bad news is that Holiday seasonality is very much in play, so take the good […]
– by New Deal democrat Probably the most important economic news this entire week was this morning’s ISM services report. Services are about 75% of the economy, and this report was for November, which means it is the most wide-ranging and current datapoint we have at the moment. And the news on this front was almost […]