– by New Deal democrat Earlier this week I promised an updated Big Picture forecast and nowcast for the US economy, plus a note about how broad or narrow was the participation. Most commentators either have a financial or ideological agenda – getting you to buy their stock recommendations, or selling you on DOOOM, cherry […]
– by New Deal democrat My Big Theme for the past few months has been that the AI Boom (or possibly bubble) is counterbalancing a stagnant or even shallowly recessionary rest of the economy. After three good reports in a row, the June employment report was very weak, and in some respects even negative. Below […]
– by New Deal democrat [Special programming note: Today we begin the second half of the year. On Friday there will be no data due to the federal holiday. Since I haven’t updated my overall nowcast and forecast for the economy, as well as how average Americans are doing economically, I plan to do so then. […]
– by New Deal democrat Besides affordability being of great importance for potential homebuyers, housing also forms about 1/3rd of the entire CPI. House prices are not a component of the CPI, but historically their trend has led the official component, “Owners’ Equivalent Rent,” by about 12 to 18 months. And for about the last […]
– by New Deal democrat Several weeks ago, I wrote that “after 20 years, I think it’s time to examine whether the broad range of long leading indicators hold up.” This was primarily because, while when they have been positive the economy has followed suit 12 to 24 months later, several times they have been […]
Unsurprisingly, the most significant high frequency indicator of the week was the 10% YoY increase in consumer spending as measured by Redbook. Despite all of the chaos and own-goals emanating out of Washington, the economy is incredibly resilient. II continue to worry that nearly the only driving force is what looks like a Bubble in […]
– by New Deal democrat Yesterday we saw a slew of data releases, including durable and core capital goods orders, jobless claims, personal income and spending, and motor vehicle sales. I reported on all but personal spending and motor vehicle sales yesterday. Today let’s take a look at the last two. Let me start with the […]
– by New Deal democrat This morning a plethora of economic data was released, including personal spending and income, manuacturers’ new orders, motor vehicle sales, and jobless claims. Since tomorrow sees no significant data releases, I’m going to hold the in-depth look at spending and motor vehicle sales until tomorrow, and update the other releases today. […]
– by New Deal democrat The third item from this morning’s torrent of economic data I want to address is personal income and saving. I’ll update the spending side tomorrow, including an updated look at motor vehicle sales, which were also released this morning. On a nominal basis, personal income rose 0.7% in May, as […]
– by New Deal democrat Per my post earlier this morning, I am going to delay until tomorrow reporting on motor vehicle sales and an in-depth look at personal spending, but let’s look at the second significant data release from this morning: manufacturers’ new durable goods orders for May. To cut to the chase, this […]