New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators July 13 -July 17

Weekly Indicators: All Timeframes Positive Despite Increase in Oil Prices

Despite oil prices heading back north of $80/barrel this past week, the underlying fundamentals in all time frames remain positive, including most importantly consumer spending.

• All major economic timeframes—long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators—remain positive, signaling ongoing economic expansion.
• Yield curve normalization and booming corporate profits are the primary long-term drivers, with yield spreads and profit growth sustaining a positive outlook.
• Short leading indicators are bolstered by strong stock prices, low jobless claims, and robust regional Fed manufacturing and services indexes.
• Coincident data highlights exceptionally strong consumer spending, though recent tax withholding trends have turned neutral to weak.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the economy, and reward me with a penny or two for compiling and organizing it for you.