Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Jobless claims continue to trend higher, but no recession signal yet

Jobless claims continue to trend higher, but no recession signal yet  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 244,000 last week, a 7.5 month high. The 4 week average rose 3,250 to 235,750, a 7 month high.  But the news wasn’t all negative, as continuing claims declined 41,000 to 1,331,000, which […]

COVID heads toward endemicity

Coronavirus dashboard for July 11: BA.4&5 now over 80% of cases without creating a new wave, as COVID heads toward endemicity The CDC’s variant proportions data for this past week is out, and it shows that combined BA.4&5 made up slightly over 80% of all infections. BA.5 was at 65%, and BA.4 at 16%: [Note: […]

Aggregate hours and payrolls of nonsupervisory workers and the onset of recessions

Aggregate hours and payrolls of nonsupervisory workers and the onset of recessions by New Deal democrat An important reason I focus on whether or not the economy is heading into recession is that during recessions income and jobs both decline for the middle and working classes as a whole. In that regard, Jared Bernstein, a […]

Weekly Indicators for July 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for July 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The 10-2 year Treasury yield inverted again, with very little fanfare. And several other leading indicators deteriorated a little further as well. But as the jobs report showed, the nowcast is still positive. As usual, clicking over […]

June jobs report: strong headline numbers

June jobs report: strong headline numbers, betraying numerous signs of rougher times Consumption leads employment. That’s true at bottoms, and it’s true at peaks as well. Since February, when consumption growth started to flag, I have been waiting for it to show up decisively in jobs numbers. In March through May, average growth decelerated from […]

Jobless claims continue to drift higher, are no longer a positive; but no recession signaled

Jobless claims continue to drift higher, are no longer a positive; but no recession signaled Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 235,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average also rose by 750 to 232,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 three months ago.  Continuing […]

May JOLTS report: a significant deceleration in the underlying jobs market has likely begun

May JOLTS report: a significant deceleration in the underlying jobs market has likely begun Late last year I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs, where employers added or took away chairs, and employees tried to best allocate themselves among the chairs.  Because of the pandemic, several […]

Coronavirus dashboard for July 5: no sign of a BA.4&5 wave in cases yet

Coronavirus dashboard for July 5: no sign of a BA.4&5 wave in cases yet, as the next variant has appeared in India  – by New Deal democrat I haven’t done a Coronavirus dashboard in a couple of weeks, and there have been a few developments, so let’s take a look. First of all, the BA.4&5 […]

There is no ‘compromise’ to end the issue of abortion

There is no ‘compromise’ to end the issue of abortion – but there may be a ‘least worst’ modus vivendi  – by New Deal democrat I have written before that the typical divide between “economic” and “social” issues isn’t quite correct. Most “social” issues, it turns out, are really “moral” issues, where some people are […]