Are Home Sales Bottoming? – by New Deal democrat For the past few months, I have speculated that home sales were bottoming. This morning’s report on March new home sales put an exclamation mark on that idea. New home sales increased 57,000 in March (from a February level downwardly revised by -17,000) to 683,000 annualized […]
House prices on track to go negative YoY by summer, despite monthly increase in February – by New Deal democrat House prices through February as measured by both the FHFA (gold in the graphs below) and Case Shiller (red) Indexes rose, the former by 0.5% (after a downwardly revised 0.1% in January), and the latter by […]
Income tax withholding payments stumble again – by New Deal democrat The important data this week will include new home sales tomorrow, Q1 GDP and initial jobless claims on Thursday, and most importantly of all (imo) real personal income and spending, along with real manufacturing and trade sales on Friday. In the meantime, today let […]
The last dissent of Thurgood Marshall: the Rule of Law vs. the transitory Edicts of 5-4 Court majorities – by New Deal democrat Daniel Kiel at the TPM Cafe, on the supreme differences between Clarence Thomas and his predecessor, Thurgood Marshall, writes: “Thurgood Marshall, … in his final opinion before retiring after a quarter century on the […]
Weekly Indicators for April 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There’s more *extremely* slow deterioration in some coincident indicators of recession, but at the same time, the downturn has been telegraphed for so long that some leading indicators are on the verge of […]
The economic tailwind from last autumn’s declining gas prices is probably over – by New Deal democrat On Wednesday I discussed how gas prices, with an assist from higher stock prices leading to stock options being cashed in, was the primary reason why the coincident indicators hadn’t rolled over yet. I wanted to explore that […]
Jobless claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag, while continuing claims shade closer to crimson – by New Deal democrat Initial claims (blue in the graph below) continued their recent track into recession caution territory this week, as they rose 5,000 to 245,000, 12.9% higher YoY and the 5th time in the last 7 weeks […]
Coincident indicators hold on, mainly due to improvement in gas prices YoY – by New Deal democrat I’ve been paying particular attention lately to the coincident indicators, because the leading indicators have telegraphed a recession for about half a year – so why isn’t it here yet??? A good representation of coincident indicators remaining positive […]
New housing construction appears to have bottomed; but expect further declines in construction employment ahead – by New Deal democrat Pointing your attention to NDd’s calling out of the economic signs leading to job declines. ~~~~~~~~ For the past few months, I’ve noted that new home sales, which while very volatile frequently are the first […]
Two “fundamental” indicators for the American middle/working class and the economy – by New Deal democrat This week is a little light on data, except for housing permits and starts (Tuesday) and existing home sales (Thursday), so let me catch up on a few other indicators. In particular, two of my favorite indicators are based […]