– by New Deal democrat My current Big Theme is that the AI Boom (or possibly bubble) is counterbalancing a stagnant or even shallowly recessionary rest of the economy. (I have to ask NDd whether he meant 2026). This was reflected in what has happened in the past few months. The initial jobs report for February was […]
– by New Deal democrat Tomorrow, Angy Bear will have New Deal democrat’s April jobs report up. I believe you will find it somewhat different than what others are posting. ~~~~ It has become increasingly likely that the Boom (or maybe Bubble) in spending on the construction and operation of AI data centers may be […]
– by New Deal democrat The most positive metric in all of economic metric-dom continues to be very positive. Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 to 200,000 last week, still among the lowest readings over the entire past 50+ years. The four week moving average declined -4,250 to 203,250, also among the lowest in the past […]
– by New Deal democrat New home sales, which were finally updated yesterday for March (and so still are about three weeks behind their regular schedule now 6 months after the end of the government shutdown!) are perhaps the most leading of all indicators for housing, itself a long leading indicator. In fact, they are […]
– by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report is low on my list of useful tools, but it does break down the labor market further than the jobs report, and it does have several slightly leading components, so let’s at least take a brief look at this series, which *finally* was updated to its normal […]
– by New Deal democrat We got a bunch of data this morning. I’ll discuss the JOLTS employment data from last month, and the ISM services report today. Since new home sales are a long leading indicator, I think I can safely wait to discuss that report tomorrow. Let me start with the ISM services report […]
– by New Deal democrat The advance report for Q1 GDP was a study in contrasts, both in terms of the leading indicators and also the sources of strength. Let me start with the general information: on a nominal basis, GDP in Q1 increased a mediocre 1.4% at an annual rate (blue). After adjusting for inflation, […]
– by New Deal democrat April data started out as usual with the ISM manufacturing index. There was some good news, but mainly bad news. The good news was that the headline ISM number (blue in the graph below) remained positive, and was unchanged at 52.7 (recall that any number above 50.0 indicates expansion). The more […]
– by New Deal democrat I wasn’t able to get to either the GDP report or the jobless claims report yesterday. I’m going to hold off on the GDP report until next week, because there was a lot going on, but this morning (before the ISM manufacturing Index comes out) let’s take a look at jobless […]
– by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detailed look at consumption by the broad range of American households. And since consumption leads employment, they also give us an idea of what is likely to happen with regard to jobs […]