– by New Deal democrat The news about initial and continuing jobless claims was almost all good this week. Initial claims declined -2,000 to 231,000, and the four-week moving average declined -4,750 to 231,500, the lowest since early June. Continuing claims increased by 13,000 to 1.868 million: As usual, more important for forecasting purposes are […]

 – by New Deal democrat Over the past year, I have downgraded the importance of manufacturing indicators as a forecasting tool for the economy as a whole. This post explores why and suggests a revised tool that may be a helpful short leading indicator. On Monday, durable goods orders rebounded sharply in July from their […]

Repeat home sale indexes show continued deceleration in house price inflation, more comfort room for Fed to cut rates  – by New Deal democrat This morning, we got the repeat home sales price data from the FHFA and Case Shiller. And the news was good, especially in the slightly leading FHFA Index. This is of […]

Weekly Indicators for August 19 – 23 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This week, for the first time in several years, the number of long leading indicators improved just enough for me to move the rating from “negative” to “neutral.” And the short leading indicators […]

 – by New Deal democrat I figured this month I would report on new and existing home sales at the same time, since they have been reported only one day apart. I have been looking for a rebalancing of the market between the two, which means *relatively* more existing vs. new home sales, firming in new […]

 – by New Deal democrat For the last several months, jobless claims have been buffeted first by unresolved post-pandemic seasonality, and then also by the effect of Hurricane Debby on claims in Texas. The first is now abating, and the second has ended, as this week claims in Texas declined to their typical level last […]

 – by New Deal democrat Every month I write about the Jobs Report. But while it is timely, it is only an estimate. There is an actual census of over 95% of all employers that also gets reported, called the QCEW, and it is the “gold standard” of actual jobs growth (or loss). Its two […]

How restrictive are “real” interest rates?  – by New Deal democrat This post is inspired by a Xtweet from Paul Krugman this morning, in which he pointed out that if we measured inflation the same way it is done in Europe, the Yoy% change would be only 1.7%. That got me wondering, since the primary […]

– by New Deal democrat It’s a slow economic news week, so don’t be surprised if I play hookie tomorrow or Wednesday. In the meantime, now that we have July’s inflation data, we can update some “real” consumer well-being indicators. First, real average hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers rose 0.1% in July to a new […]

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. With the bond market anticipating Fed rate cuts ahead, it has already lowered mortgage rates somewhat on its own. That has led to a jump in new applications, and to an even bigger spike in refinancing. As usual, clicking over and reading […]