Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Housing construction changes little in December; but increased mortgage rates from H2 2023 have not yet been digested

Housing construction changes little in December; but increased mortgage rates from H2 2023 have not yet been digested  – by New Deal democrat For this post, I’m going to show what the housing market looks like from most to least leading of the indicators. That shows that, although this morning’s release for housing permits and […]

Jobless claims: bar one week, the lowest number of layoffs in over half a century

Jobless claims: bar one week, the lowest number of layoffs in over half a century  – by New Deal democrat To reiterate my theme from last week, we’re back to the virtuous scenario where almost nobody is getting laid off. Initial jobless claims last week declined -16,000 to 187,000. Except for one week in September […]

Industrial production continues in near-recessionary trajectory

Industrial production continues in near-recessionary trajectory  – by New Deal democrat In contrast to this morning’s good news on consumption, production continued its lackluster 2023 all the way to the end. Total industrial production (blue in the graph below) increased 0.1% in December, but revisions to the two previous months totaled -0.2%, so the net […]

December real retail sales: the good economic news keeps on coming

December real retail sales: the good economic news keeps on coming  – by New Deal democrat The good economic news kept coming with this morning’s retail sales report for December. Remember that this is one of my favorite indicators because, adjusted for population, it is a fairly good long leading indicator, and on a short […]

As vehicles and outdoor appliances become increasingly electric, long term gas usage – and “real” prices – decline

As vehicles and outdoor appliances become increasingly electric, long term gas usage – and “real” prices – decline  – by New Deal democrat What is the “real” cost of gasoline? When measuring this, some people compare with the CPI. But that actually just tells you the *relative* inflation in gas vs. other items. That’s why, […]

For MLK Day: Blacks are faring better during the post-pandemic Boom than at almost any time in the previous 50+ years

For MLK Day: Blacks are faring better during the post-pandemic Boom than at almost any time in the previous 50+ years  – by New Deal democrat On this MLK Jr. national holiday, let’s take a look at how Blacks are faring in the current economy. And the answer is, pretty good! The unemployment rate for Blacks […]

New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 8 – 12 2024

Weekly Indicators for January 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There are almost always a few interesting ripples in the pond. In the past month, notably there has been the sudden collapse in YoY tax withholding payments. I’m not too concerned yet, […]

Producer prices flat, commodities decline, shelter is sole inflationary pressure

Producer prices flat, commodities decline, confirming shelter as sole inflationary pressure  – by New Deal democrat Once again producer prices confirmed that the only significant problem in inflation is shelter. In December commodity prices declined -1.3%. For finished goods they declined -1.2%. Even producer prices for services were unchanged: On a YoY basis, commodity prices […]

Consumer inflation remains all about the lagged effect of house prices

Consumer inflation remains all about the lagged effect of house prices  – by New Deal democrat Consumer inflation in December continued to be a tale of the relative importance of gas prices vs. the lagged effect of home prices. Headline inflation increased 0.3%, and was up 3.4% YoY. YoY headline inflation has bounced between 3.1%-3.7% […]

The good news on jobless claims continues

The good news on jobless claims continues  – by New Deal democrat The recent streak of very positive news on jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -1,000 to 201,000. The four week moving average declined -250 to 207,750. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims declined -34,000 to 1.834 million. The first […]