– by New Deal democrat We got a bunch of data this morning. I’ll discuss the JOLTS employment data from last month, and the ISM services report today. Since new home sales are a long leading indicator, I think I can safely wait to discuss that report tomorrow. Let me start with the ISM services report […]
– by New Deal democrat The advance report for Q1 GDP was a study in contrasts, both in terms of the leading indicators and also the sources of strength. Let me start with the general information: on a nominal basis, GDP in Q1 increased a mediocre 1.4% at an annual rate (blue). After adjusting for inflation, […]
– by New Deal democrat April data started out as usual with the ISM manufacturing index. There was some good news, but mainly bad news. The good news was that the headline ISM number (blue in the graph below) remained positive, and was unchanged at 52.7 (recall that any number above 50.0 indicates expansion). The more […]
– by New Deal democrat I wasn’t able to get to either the GDP report or the jobless claims report yesterday. I’m going to hold off on the GDP report until next week, because there was a lot going on, but this morning (before the ISM manufacturing Index comes out) let’s take a look at jobless […]
– by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detailed look at consumption by the broad range of American households. And since consumption leads employment, they also give us an idea of what is likely to happen with regard to jobs […]
– by New Deal democrat As I reiterated the other day, housing is the one long leading signal of the economy that has been soundly negative – indeed frankly recessionary – for the past year. That trend continued in March, although there are signs of it bottoming out. Without having caused a recession. Let me start […]
– by New Deal democrat There was some important housing data this morning; but first I wanted to drop a brief note on the advance report on manufacturing that also was released, because it is yet more confirmation of the (surprising) strong positive trend in that sector. This report covered March, so included the first […]
– by New Deal democrat Three housing metrics have been reported between yesterday and today. Yesterday Apartment List updated their National Rent Report, and today the two national repeat home sales indexes, from the FHFA and Case-Shiller, were updated through February. To cut to the chase, all three confirm that housing prices have ceased being an […]
– by New Deal democrat In the past week, I have been updating my suite of long leading indicators. First I looked at “real” consumer-focused indicators. Then I looked at housing, an important interface between consumers and producers, as well as corporate profits. Next I updated interest rate indicators. I this final installment I will […]
– by New Deal democrat As I noted earlier this week, I haven’t updated my suite of long leading indicators in a while, mainly because they have been overwhelmed by the economic chaos emanating from Washington, and partly also because several important ones are in terra incognito. On Monday and Wednesday I updated the non-financial […]