And the King of Coincident Indicators rolls over – by New Deal democrat This morning’s second big – and big negative – report was for industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators (I call it so because historically, it more often than not marks the exact month +/-1 that a recession begins or ends). In […]
December real retail sales: the worst in almost two years – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales, one of my favorite indicators, was updated this morning for December, and it was significant. It’s not just that retail sales declined -1.1% for the month both in nominal and real terms; it’s that both October and […]
Why the Fed’s present rate hike campaign is almost unprecedented – by New Deal democrat Just how unprecedented is the Fed’s current rate hike policy? Since the Fed started actively managing the Fed Funds rate in the late 1950s, only two other occasions are similar. The reason the Fed is hiking rates is to combat […]
The important trend in retail sales that Redbook’s weekly report is telling us about – by New Deal democrat This is the first of hopefully two posts I will put up today. Tomorrow retail sales for December will be reported. In advance of that, I wanted to discuss their comparison with the weekly high-frequency data […]
COVID endemicity: 100,000+ (mainly needless) excess deaths per year – by New Deal democrat I suspect these updates are going to be much less frequent from now on; for example, if a significant new wave is evident. That’s because, as we start our fourth year of the pandemic, the good news is that it is […]
Weekly Indicators for January 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. One thing that comes with the territory of high frequency indicators is that they can be noisy. And at no time of the year can they be noisier as during and right after […]
Real average wages and real aggregate payrolls for December 2022 – by New Deal democrat Now that we know December consumer inflation, we can see how the American working/middle class is “really” doing. Nominally, average wages for nonsupervisory workers increased 0.2%, while prices deflated by -0.1%, meaning that “real” average wages increased 0.3% for the […]
Jobless claims start out 2023 where they left off in 2022 – as positive – by New Deal democrat It took a little while for FRED to post this data today, but with that reason for a delay . . . Initial jobless claims started off 2023 where they left off in 2022, with another […]
Consumer inflation remains dominated by gas prices (good) and shelter (bad) – by New Deal democrat Declining gas prices continue to do wondrous things for the economy. In December they declined from roughly $3.50 to $3.10/gallon. Meanwhile the phantom menace of Owners’ Equivalent Rent continues to drag “core” inflation higher. Details below. Total inflation: -0.1%m/m […]
An in-depth look at production and sales: evidence of peaking in both – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I took an in-depth look at employment. Today let’s take a look at two other important coincident indicators that are looked at by the NBER for guidance as to whether or not the economy is expanding or […]