– by New Deal democrat As I’ve previously noted a number of times, one of the more surprising developments in the past few months has been the resilience of manufacturing. After taking a beating following “Liberation Day” one year ago, companies adapted and resumed production if anything at an even more brisk pace. That was apparent […]

– by New Deal democrat Back in the “before” days, as in January, before the Iran war, I wrote about how low gas prices were actually a tailwind for the economy. Because since the start of the Millennium over 25 years ago, they had only been so low compared with average hourly wages on only 3 […]

After zigging upward last week, interest rates zagged downward – but not as much – this week, enough to change the ratings on some interest rate sensitive indicators, like mortgages. And consumers continue to spend, despite all the shocks and sluggishness in things like the labor market in the past 15 months. Partial of “Weekly […]

 – by New Deal democrat I described two months ago as “the month the birds came home to roost.” Last month, pace Edgar Allen Poe, I said the birds were screeching “recession!” This month, Poe’s birds decided to play with us, screeching instead: “Nevermind!” This was a good report with mainly good internals, with one […]

 – by New Deal democrat  With the stock market flailing around trying to keep its head above water, jobless claims along with consumer spending are the only two metrics that solidly support a continued economic expansion (ok, maybe ISM manufacturing is trending in that way as well). But to the point of this post: last […]

 – by New Deal democrat While much of the official government data is still delayed, months after the end of the shutdown, privately sourced data remains fully up to date. And March data started out with the ISM manufacturing index, which was our second piece of (mainly) good news of the morning. The headline ISM number […]

 – by New Deal democrat After all these months, we are still feeling the effects of the government shutdown last fall.  Normally construction spending is released on the first day of the month for the second previous month – in today’s case, that would be for February. But half a year after the shutdown began, […]

 – by New Deal democrat I normally don’t pay too much attention to the JOLTS report, and I won’t this month, either. It does break down the labor market further than the jobs report, and it does have several slightly leading components, so let’s at least take a brief look. Below are job openings (blue), […]

– by New Deal democrat The two national repeat home sales indexes, from the FHFA and Case-Shiller, were reported this morning and both continued to confirm the gradual abatement in shelter inflation. The Case-Shiller National index (blue in the graphs below) up 0.2% for the three month period ending in January, while the FHFA index […]

 – by New Deal democrat As readers know well, one of my favorite “real life” indicators is real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls, which measures how much in wages average American workers have to spend each month. When it is growing, economic expansions almost always continue; when it declines by any significant amount, recessions almost always ensue […]