New Deal Democrats Weekly Indicators Summation May 11- 15

New Deal Democrat: Weekly Indicators: A Negative Steepening of Bond Yields And (Maybe) Shipping Rates

Summary:

• All major economic timeframes remain positive, but several key warning signals have emerged in long leading and short leading indicators.

• A ‘bear steepener’ in the yield curve and a rising leverage index suggest tightening credit and potential recession risk within 12 months.

• Short leading indicators are buoyed by record stock highs and low jobless claims, but surging commodity prices likely reflect supply shocks, not robust demand.

• Coincident indicators show strong consumer spending and tax withholding, yet elevated shipping indexes may signal increased global risk rather than economic strength.

Unsurprisingly, the big move among the high frequency indicators in the past week was interest rates. There was also a secondary big move, which is also inflationary, and reflects the ongoing idiocy of the current Administration in Washington: international shipping rates spiking, in one case to a 24-month high.

My “Weekly Indicators” report is up at Seeking Alpha.