– by New Deal democrat One of the things I used to harp on was that many forecasters make the mistake of simply taking an existing trend and projecting it forward. Often it is paired with the idea of “all things being equal,” i.e., that there won’t be countertrends in other sectors of the economy. […]

 – by New Deal democrat While much of the official government data is still delayed, months after the end of the shutdown, privately sourced data remains fully up to date. And March data started out with the ISM manufacturing index, which was our second piece of (mainly) good news of the morning. The headline ISM number […]