New home sales and YoY prices change little; expect sideways trend to follow similar recent trend in mortgage rates – by New Deal democrat This week we conclude January’s housing market data with repeat sales prices tomorrow, and new single family home sales, which were reported this morning. Per my usual caveat, while new home […]
The “gold standard” of employment reports suggests that last summer’s job growth was even weaker than we thought – by New Deal democrat While the monthly jobs report gets all the headlines, the “gold standard” for actual employment gains and losses is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which as its name indicates, […]
The bottoming process in existing home sales continues, as YoY price comparisons increase – by New Deal democrat The bifurcation of the housing market between new and existing home components continues, as existing home sales continue near their bottom, but with a little improvement. Specifically, in January sales increased 120,000 on an annualized basis from an […]
The good news on jobless claims continues – by New Deal democrat The good news on jobless claims continued this week, as initial claims declined -12,000 to 201,000. The four-week moving average also declined, by -3,500 to 215,250. Continuing claims, with the usual one-week delay, declined -27,000 to 1.862 million: Needless to say, this also helped […]
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2024 Perceptions of inflation vs. wage growth: why the divergence? – by New Deal democrat My recent travels included visits to cousins and their children on both sides of my family. Without any prompting from me, inevitably the table talk turned to the state of the economy. Rather than Bigfoot the opinions […]
Weekly Indicators for February 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat I am back from my travels, so it’s time to catch up. There’s no significant economic news until tomorrow, but in the meantime I neglected to link to my weekly high frequency indicator wrap-up, which was posted at Seeking Alpha. As usual, […]
Retail sales faceplant; industrial production continues 16-month streak of weakness – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at two the big short leading and coincident indicators that were reported yesterday, respectively real retail sales and inducatrial production. Retail sales can be volatile monthly, and about once in a typical year they either faceplant or […]
Housing construction essentially stable in January – by New Deal democrat I’m on the road, so I need to keep this brief, but fortunately I can give you the essence of this most important housing report with little difficulty. Mortgage rates have declined about 1% from their peak during the autumn, and are about equal to […]
Initial claims remain positive – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined this week -8,000 to 212,000. The four week average rose 5,750 to 218,250. With the typical one-week lag, continuing claims rose 30,000 to 1.865 million: On the more important (for forecasting purposes) YoY basis, initial claims are down -1.9%. The four week […]
The long leading forecast for 2024 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat A couple of times a year I update my long leading forecast. With the latest GDP and Senior Loan Officer Survey data, there is enough to take a look at what the next 12 months probably have in store. This article is up […]