“March industrial production mainly continues stagnant trend”  – by New Deal democrat Since I didn’t get to it yesterday, let me say a few words about yesterday’s industrial production report for March this morning. I used to call this “the King of Coincident Indicators,” but with the shrinking of manufacturing as a share of the US […]

Jobless claims continue to be the most positive metric in the array of economic indicators   – by New Deal democrat The new regime of lower jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -11,000 to 207,000, while the four week moving average rose 500 to 209,750. Both of these remain within a stone’s throw […]

“Stock market at new highs, even with Strait of Hormuz still closed. What is Wall Street thinking?!?”  – by New Deal democrat As I type this, there are two particularly salient facts:  1. Although the US and Iran are not lobbing bombs at one another at the moment, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.  2. […]

 – by New Deal democrat Sometimes there just isn’t much drama in economic numbers, and that was certainly the case for this month’s edition of existing home sales. As a mild refresher, even though they constitute about 90% of all housing sales, existing sales are not nearly so important as new home sales, since the latter […]

– by New Deal democrat Today I want to step back from the daily data and give you my Big Picture overview of the economy, particularly because Friday’s inflation report has materially changed an important component. To begin with, as I have been saying off and on for months, the economy has been essentially flat, and […]

 – by New Deal democrat While inflation and interest rates took a whack at some of the data, most of the financial-related series (like the yield curve in the bond market and credit conditions) remain very positive. And consumer spending, likely by the uppermost income groups, actually posted one of its very best YoY comparisons in […]

– by New Deal democrat Jobless claims, along with stock market prices and upscale consumer spending (and recently, manufacturing orders) are one of the few important metrics holding up the economy. And the short summary of this morning’s data is: the new regime of very low claims continued. Initial claims did rise 16,000 to a still […]

 – by New Deal democrat As anticipated, the March CPI packed a wallop, up 0.9% for the month and causing the YoY% gain to increase to 3.3%, while core CPI was a tame 0.2% with a YoY% gain of 2.6%. Because of the impact of that big number, I am departing from my usual format to […]

“Recessionary signals in February personal income and spending, but some bright spots as well”  – by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detailed look at consumption by the broad range of American households. And since consumption leads employment, they also […]

 – by New Deal democrat While there isn’t any big economic news today, there certainly was action overnight in response to the latest TACO. As I type this, oil is back down to $90/barrel, and stock futures are soaring. This for something (correctly I think) framed as a “fragile cease fire” by J.D. Vance. But […]