Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Three most quickly reported measures of coincident indicators – all of which are close to turning negative

Three most quickly reported measures of coincident indicators – all of which are close to turning negative  – by New Deal democrat While we await tomorrow morning’s deluge of Almost Every Economic Series Imaginable, I have posted over at Seeking Alpha a detailed look at one measure of consumer spending and two of employment which will give […]

Index of leading indicators says recession almost certain; so what of the coincident indicators?

Index of leading indicators says recession almost certain; so what of the coincident indicators? – by New Deal democrat This week is one of those where almost all of the important data is crammed into one day – in this case, Thursday, when Q4 GDP, initial claims, real manufacturng and trade sales, durable goods orders, […]

How “FHFA-CPI” using house prices rather than OER shows a sharp deceleration in inflation

How “FHFA-CPI” using house prices rather than OER shows a sharp deceleration in inflation  – by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman made another foray into the “inflation is mostly gone” genre over the weekend with a thread on Mastodon that largely relied on the following graph: concluding that “[A]t this point the burden of proof lies on […]

New Deal democrat’s weekly indicators for January 16 – 20

Weekly Indicators for January 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I forgot to post this yesterday, so here you go today . . .  My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Every now and then you get a contratrend week, when a bunch of metrics move in the opposite direction […]

Existing home sales and prices decline; plus, a closer look at multi-unit housing construction

Existing home sales and prices decline; plus, a closer look at multi-unit housing construction  – by New Deal democrat I will keep my comments on December existing home sales and prices brief. That’s because, even though they make up about 90% of the total market, they have much less economic impact than new home construction. […]

Jobless claims continue their string of good news

Jobless claims continue their string of good news  – by New Deal democrat If yesterday’s economic data was bad, this morning’s was considerably better (I’ll post on housing construction later). Initial jobless claims declined 15,000 to 195,000, tied for their best number in almost 8 months. The 4 week moving average declined 6,500 to 206,000, […]

And the King of Coincident Indicators rolls over

And the King of Coincident Indicators rolls over  – by New Deal democrat This morning’s second big – and big negative – report was for industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators (I call it so because historically, it more often than not marks the exact month +/-1 that a recession begins or ends). In […]

December real retail sales: the worst in almost two years

December real retail sales: the worst in almost two years  – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales, one of my favorite indicators, was updated this morning for December, and it was significant. It’s not just that retail sales declined -1.1% for the month both in nominal and real terms; it’s that both October and […]

Why the Fed’s present rate hike campaign is almost unprecedented

Why the Fed’s present rate hike campaign is almost unprecedented – by New Deal democrat Just how unprecedented is the Fed’s current rate hike policy? Since the Fed started actively managing the Fed Funds rate in the late 1950s, only two other occasions are similar. The reason the Fed is hiking rates is to combat […]