– by New Deal democrat I want to write an extended discussion of the April retail sales report released this morning, to tease out the effect of the spike in gas prices, but first let me do my usual weekly update on jobless claims. These have historically been a good short leading indicator for the economy, […]

The inflationary, “K”-shaped T—-p economy  – by New Deal democrat There are times when the economy is undergoing such a profound shift that there is suddenly a lot to say. This is one of those times. I have been meaning to put up a post like this for several weeks. Let me at least make some […]

– by New Deal democrat As almost universally anticpated, the April CPI continued to reflect the big increase in gas prices – although it didn’t pack quite the wallop that March did. Headline CPI increased 0.6%, following March’s +0.9%, causing the YoY% gain to increase to 3.8%.  Meanwhile the core measure increased 0.4%, causing the YoY% […]

 – by New Deal democrat Although they constitute about 90% of all housing sales, I don’t pay too much attention to existing sales because they are not nearly so important as new home sales, since the latter involve much more economic activity in the building process, plus more landscaping and furnishings. As I’ll show below, what […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Surprisingly, most of the data is almost relentlessly positive. In particular, those things most tied up with AI — corporate profits, stock prices, and downstream consumer spending — are particularly strong. Also, American energy companies are making windfall profits from the closure of […]

 – by New Deal democrat My current Big Theme is that the AI Boom (or possibly bubble) is counterbalancing a stagnant or even shallowly recessionary rest of the economy. (I have to ask NDd whether he meant 2026). This was reflected in what has happened in the past few months. The initial jobs report for February was […]

 – by New Deal democrat Tomorrow, Angy Bear will have New Deal democrat’s April jobs report up. I believe you will find it somewhat different than what others are posting. ~~~~ It has become increasingly likely that the Boom (or maybe Bubble) in spending on the construction and operation of AI data centers may be […]

 – by New Deal democrat The most positive metric in all of economic metric-dom continues to be very positive. Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 to 200,000 last week, still among the lowest readings over the entire past 50+ years. The four week moving average declined -4,250 to 203,250, also among the lowest in the past […]

– by New Deal democrat New home sales, which were finally updated yesterday for March (and so still are about three weeks behind their regular schedule now 6 months after the end of the government shutdown!) are perhaps the most leading of all indicators for housing, itself a long leading indicator. In fact, they are […]

– by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report is low on my list of useful tools, but it does break down the labor market further than the jobs report, and it does have several slightly leading components, so let’s at least take a brief look at this series, which *finally* was updated to its normal […]