– by New Deal democrat Keep in mind NDd only talks about Real Average Wages in which he does not include supervisor wages or increases. In this regard, readers get a much better perspective of Labor wages and earnings. Since NDd was traveling, we have an additional post this week. The Bonddad Blog On Wednesday […]
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog New Deal democrat has been on top of the discussions of shelter and/or gasoline prices in February and also in January. He has been on top of these discussions which appear to be making the news moreso in April than earlier in the year. I have linked […]
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog [NOTE: After traveling all day yesterday, I decided to put off any comments on the CPI upside surprise until later today. Short version is that shelter continues its slow decent, gasoline picked up, and services are accelerating as one might expect in a strong economy with the supply […]
– by New Deal democrat I neglected to post this over the weekend, so I will post it now…. Weekly Indicators: The Coincident Indicators Say ‘Soft Landing Is Here.’ – Long Leading Indicators Show Improvement – Short Leading Indicators are showing mixed results. – Coincident Indicators suggest a Soft-Landing scenario for 2024. “My “Weekly Indicators” update […]
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog New Deal democrat has been writing and featured at Angry Bear for years now. His economic outlooks have been accurate with few exceptions. As always the US economy is independent of us in the short term. Read on as NDd’s remarks are focusing on a sound labor […]
In sum, this month’s report was very much consistent with a “soft landing” scenario, which must be regarded as the default outcome at this point. Read-on for the details . . . – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent […]
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Initial claims in the last week rose 9,000 to 221,000, while the four week moving average increased 2,750 to 214,250. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims declined 19,000 to 1.791 million: On the more important YoY% basis for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 2.3%, while […]
– by New Deal democrat “it should be no surprise that Biden’s poll numbers have recently improved.” No big economic news today, so let me update a correlation with information from last Friday’s personal income data. To wit, is consumer sentiment about the economy tied to any real metric? With a lot of noise, it does […]
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog The JOLTS report for February showed stabilization or slight improvement to all but one of its components, generally suggesting, well, stabilization in the overall jobs market. Starting with the monthly changes, job openings (blue in the graph below), a soft statistic that is polluted by imaginary, permanent, and […]
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. To repeat what I have said often recently, these are the two sectors I am paying particular attention to for forecasting purposes this year. The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading […]