Here’s what the overall data looks like:
While starts and completions laid an egg, permits actually went up a little bit.
In particular, for housing to be outright recessionary, I would want to see single family housing permits down -10% from peak at minimum. This morning’s data has them down only about -6.5% off peak, just slightly above their worst showing of 2018.
In other words, this morning’s report says slowdown rather than recession to me.