It appears (as stated) New Deal is either on the road, taking a train, or flying somewhere to relax, have some fun, or gathering information for a new report. I hope for the earlier two latter as NDd is typically busy reporting on the economy in his fashion. So as a surprise or treat, NDd […]
My “Weekly Indicators” post is up. The high frequency data continues to confirm my Big Picture outlook that after a near-miss or possible “mini-recession” late last year, the economy is rebounding. In particular, the YoY improvements, already Booming, in consumer spending are accelerating even more. Some of this is probably the wealth effect from stock portfolios, […]
– by New Deal democrat As we come to the end of the week after the payrolls report, when typically, almost nothing is reported, I wanted to follow up on several posts I wrote last week: one, revisiting the configuration of long leading indicators, and second, Republics are very durable unless and until they are […]
– by New Deal democrat It has been four years since the Fed started aggressively raising interest rates, causing mortgage rates to rise similarly. It has been over four years since home sales peaked, and also about four years since the median price of a new home peaked. Finally, it has also been four years […]
– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims. In addition to being 1/2 of my “quick and dirty” forecasting system (the other 1/2 being stock prices), they have a 60 year history of being a good short leading indicator. [Later this morning we’ll get existing home sales, and I’ll […]
– by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes, pointing out that they have shown a rebound this year. Today let’s take a brief look at the regional Fed manufacturing and services indexes. Below are the manufacturing and services indexes, averaged over the four Fed districts whose […]
– by New Deal democrat There’s no important new economic news today, so let’s take a somewhat deeper dive into last Thursday’s employment report for June. To cut to the chase, this is of a piece of my “Big Picture” narrative from Friday in which I wrote that most of the signals suggest and economy coming […]
– by New Deal democrat The economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services indexes have become one of my favorite datapoints. In particular, in the past year they have been an excellent dashboard for the state of the US economy as a whole, both as a coincident and short leading indicator. Last summer they accurately suggested that […]
The United States of America at 250: the enemy of Republics is entrenched power – by New Deal democrat On America’s 250th anniversary, the state of the Republic is not good. Ten years ago, after the 2016 election, I embarked upon a reading journey, to seek an answer to the questions: are Republics fragile? Are they […]
Weekly Indicators: Still Strong Spending, Tepid Tax Payments Two cross-currents I mentioned in my long piece Friday were very much in evidence in the high frequency data this week: huge gains in aggregate YoY consumer spending, and very weak withholding tax collections. My take on this is that the top end of the income distribution […]