Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

October industrial production: consistent with a very slow expansion

October industrial production: consistent with a very slow expansion  – by New Deal democrat I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because more often than any other metric it coincides with the peaks and troughs of economic activity as determined by the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions. Unlike retail sales, the news […]

Supply Chain pressures have eased

October producer prices: more evidence that supply chain pressures have eased  – by New Deal democrat Let me start this discussion of October’s producer price index by pointing to the NY Fed’s “Global Supply Chain Pressure Index” for the past 5 years through October: Before Trump’s tariff’s in 2018, most often this index was slightly […]

Foreboding Economic Signs Coming from consumption and employment data

Some foreboding signs and portents from consumption and employment data  – by New Deal democrat I have a special post up at Seeking Alpha, looking at some very troubling signs from several of the high frequency indicators I track weekly as to consumption and employment. Click over and read the whole article, but here is a little taste: […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for November 7 – 11

“Weekly Indicators for November 7 – 11″ at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Although a few indicators are holding up, in the past month there has been almost continual deterioration in several employment and consumption metrics. These are particularly important for whether the consumer is pulling […]

How is the working-middle class doing? Real average non-supervisory wages

Real average hourly wages and real aggregate payrolls for October  – by New Deal democrat With yesterday’s report on October consumer prices, we can take up two of my favorite measures of how the working/middle class is doing – real average non-supervisory wages, and real aggregate payrolls. Real average wages for non-supervisory workers declined -0.1% […]

October CPI reports total inflation increases at a 3.5% annual rate

October CPI report: total inflation increasing at 3.5% annual rate, core inflation minus shelter increasing at 2.8% annual rate in the past 4 months  – by New Deal democrat For a full year now I’ve been hammering the fact that the official CPI measure of housing inflation, “owners’ equivalent rent,” seriously lags actual house prices as […]

Jobless claims: still holding steady

Jobless claims: still holding steady  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose slightly, by 7,000, from one week ago to 225,000. The 4 week average declined -250 to 218,750. Continuing claims also rose slightly, by 6,000, to 1,493,000: This is right in the middle of where claims have been for the last 6 […]

Coronavirus dashboard for November 8, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for November 8: the new alphabet soup of variants fails to generate a new wave (so far)  – by New Deal democrat Biobot has not updated since late last week, showing COVID particles at or near 6 month lows both nationwide: and in all 4 Census regions: As expected, the CDC’s variant update […]

Some Big Picture comments on the 2022 midterm elections

Some Big Picture comments on the 2022 midterm elections  – by New Deal democrat No economic news today while we await tomorrow’s big inflation report (Hint: shelter inflation is going to continue to be the big driver); and I think maybe we had a little political event yesterday, so let me make a few brief […]

Scenes from the October jobs report

Deceleration and deterioration, but no downturn signaled  – by New Deal democrat No economic news of note today or tomorrow, except the (very late) Q3 Senior Loan Officers Report this afternoon, which will tell us about the state of credit, but is anticipated in much more timely – i.e., weekly – fashion by the Chicago Fed’s […]