AB: For the last few months, New Deal democrat has been watching an economy on the brink of a recession. Still not quite there yet. The one factor keeping us above board is AI. A quick explanation why. The pending on AI infrastructure accounts for a large portion of U.S. GDP growth today. Such offsets […]
This morning there is a slew of economic data, including personal indome and spending, jobless claims, durable and capital goods orders, revisions to GDP, and new home sales. Since tomorrow there is very little data, I am going to report on the first two tdoay, and save the rest for tomorrow. – by New Deal democrat […]
– by New Deal democrat There is a slew of economic data being released tomorrow, the most important of which will be personal income and spending, so I will likely defer some reporting on the other data until Friday. But in the meantime, there’s no significant data today. So let me take this opportunity to show […]
– by New Deal democrat For the last number of months, I have been putting front and center that housing prices have ceased being an engine of inflation. In fact, changes in repeat home sales prices as measured by both the Case-Shiller National Index and the FHFA Purchase Only Index are at levels that with only […]
– by New Deal democrat Memorial Day originated as the day to remember those thousands who gave their lives to preserve the Union in the Cicil War, by decorating their graves. It is that most somber of national observances, in which we remember all of those who gave their lives to protect government of the People, […]
My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Interest rates, along with gas prices, continue to be elevated, but consumers are continuing to spend their way right on through the adversity – at least, so far.
– by New Deal democrat Although manufacturing is far less important to the US economy than it was in the decades after World War II, it is still about 25% of the total weighting; and further, it is more vulnerable to shocks than the services portion of the economy. Which means, for forecasting purposes, it […]
Twenty years ago, Professor Edward Leamer gave an important presentation at the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting entitled “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” The current environment is putting that hypothesis to a very severe test. Because by all accounts housing has deteriorated sufficiently that a recession should already have begun months ago. In fact, the current […]
– by New Deal democrat I’ll get to housing permits and starts later this morning. But first, let me take my regular look at initial and continuing jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at jobless claims because historically they have been a very good short leading indicator for the economy. And they continue to […]
– by New Deal democrat The drought of significant official economic data continues today, but this is a good time to update my forecast for the effect of the spike in gas prices on inflation, specifically for May. To reiterate, my back of the envelope calculation is to take the percent change in the price […]