Why has residential building construction remained so strong, despite the recessionary-level decline in permits and starts? – by New Deal democrat As an initial note, there is no economic news today. For obvious reasons there won’t be on Thursday or Friday either. So, don’t be surprised if I take a couple of days off as […]
Weekly Indicators for November 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. After a brief pause, the coincident indicators have continued to improve. There are now very few that are not positive. The spotlight therefore remains on the short leading indicators, as to which […]
Housing construction continues to support subdued expansion – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote of how manufacturing has faded somewhat as a leading indicator, at least in the sense that it takes a steeper downturn than it used to in order to forecast a wider downturn in the economy. Which makes the other big […]
October industrial and manufacturing production tank – but it’s all about the UAW strike – by New Deal democrat Industrial production historically has been the King of Coincident Indicators, turning up and down coincident with the onset and end of recessions in the past. But there are signs that has changed in the past 20+ […]
Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 231,000 in the past week. The 4 week moving average increased 7,750 to 220,250. With a one week lag, continued claims rose 32,000 to 1.865 million: I had speculated that the big decline in claims […]
If you have been following NDd, you will note one of the biggest issues with the economy is supply chain. Most notably shortages of raw material, components, and finished products. Similar occurred in 2008 and my own belief is this is a recurrence of similar. I believe much of this could have been prevented. Beyongd […]
It appears inflation is coming down this year and probably into next year also. Maybe Biden will not have to twist the Fed’s arm to get them to lower the Fed rate. Except for fictitious shelter and motor vehicle insurance and repairs, consumer inflation is thoroughly contained – by New Deal democrat The October CPI […]
Why Biden is in trouble about the economy – by New Deal democrat A big focus of political discourse in the past two weeks has been about why Biden seems to be polling so poorly against Trump, and in particular has not consolidated support among younger voters. Since the economy is always a very important […]
I have been sharing New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators with an Edward Jones consultant who handles our funds. He was pretty impressed with the detail New Deal democrat gives here and at Seeking Alpha. He has his own account so he can go every week (I am limited). If have some time, you should explore […]
Consumption leads (longer term) unemployment, too – by New Deal democrat Once again there is no new economic data, so let me follow up some more on the issue of longer term unemployment. Earlier this week I pointed out that just as initial claims lead continuing claims, so does short term unemployment (under 5 weeks) […]