– by New Deal democrat Even before the Iran war started almost three weeks ago, the US economy was in something of a stagflationary scenario. Let’s take a look at how the war, and in particular the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has impacted that, starting with the direct effects and then following the […]

– by New Deal democrat [Administrative note: the good news is, graphs are back! The bad news is, it is extremely glitchy and energy consuming, so my fingers are still crossed. Basically it boils down to Apple and Google don’t want to interact with one another, and have to be repeatedly dragged, kicking and screaming, into […]

– by New Deal democrat To briefly reiterate, although the government shutdown ended over two months ago, much of the official monthly data – including on sales and spending – is stale, dating to November and even earlier. So the most current measures of these are the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports, due next week, and […]

“November ISM manufacturing report indicates deepening stagflationary contraction”  – by New Deal democrat Normally we begin each month with reports on both construction spending and manufacturing. But even though th federal shutdown has been over for more than three weeks, data releases have been both very sparse and very stale. In particular, construction spending for August […]

 – by New Deal democrat As I’ve reiterated several times this month, the two items of information I am paying the most attention to in the absence of official federal economic data are the Regional Fed Banks and the ISM, for both of their manufacturing and services reports. I should add that earlier this week […]

My little post on the warnings by Paul Krugman and others that the US economy might be entering a period of stagflation, was prompted by my experience as young man who finished his education, started in his career and got married in the 1970’s when “stagflation” was the buzz word and politicians kept pointing fingers […]

I have been waiting for an explanation on inflation like this to break loose from a credible source other than myself(?). If you have been around long enough, you kind of know what is going to take place once the Fed starts to increase Fed rates. You may have been around in the seventies when […]