New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for January 26-30

My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha

– by New Deal democrat

The trends in the high frequency data that became apparent after last summer have continued, and if anything are intensifying. In particular, a real surge in commodity prices and somewhat in a mirror image, the US$ decline which is beginning to verge on disorderly. Meanwhile, consumer spending (probably by the top 10% who have been watching their stock portfolios increase sharply in value) continues to hold up well.

As per the normal readings for both the short leading and coincident indicators is very positive, based on strong commodity and consumer spending readings in particular. Jobless claims continue very positive as they generally have since early November. Tax withholding payments are better than in Q4 but barely more than wage increases. With the broad US$ down more than -10%, it turns negative, although it is not a disorganized decline at this point. I’ve placed an asterisk (*) next to the US$ and commodity price readings to reflect my concern that their supply and demand equation may unusually reflect not strong demand for commodities, but a trade against the US$, and perhaps geopolitically as well – although I am still scoring them normally.

Finally, once again as I have said repeatedly recently, the high frequency measures of consumer spending remain very positive, and as consumer spending is about 70% of the economy, it is hard to see any significant downturn in the immediate future.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the economy, and put a penny or two in my pocket for my efforts organizing the data for you.