Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The positive, noisy monthly March new home sales report masks underlying trend weakness

– by New Deal democrat New home sales, which were finally updated yesterday for March (and so still are about three weeks behind their regular schedule now 6 months after the end of the government shutdown!) are perhaps the most leading of all indicators for housing, itself a long leading indicator. In fact, they are […]

October new home sales: also pre-recessionary, also with signs of possible “green shoots”

 – by New Deal democrat New home sales were updated for the second time since the shutdown, with data only through October – i.e., stale. The silver lining is that this is a long leading indicator, so it remains of value. Normally I save inventory for last, but in view of the importance of new […]

Big Picture Summary Inflation and Housing

The Big Picture of the housing market, and its almost complete bifurcation, in 3 easy graphs  – by New Deal democrat I want to spend some time commenting on the broader issue of why the public perceives inflation is still rampant, even though almost all official measures show it rapidly decelerating, and even completely absent […]