– by New Deal democrat Hopefully for the last time . . . As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the unadjusted number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated based on reporting by the States, plus DC, and Puerto Rico. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The trends of strong retail spending, a weak US$, and strength in commodity prices all continue. But in recent weeks withholding tax payments have waned. While there can be a number of causes for that, it definitely merits a caution flag as to […]
– by New Deal democrat Earlier this week, I wrote about 4 current shocks to the US economy (tariffs, medical insurance increases, SNAP payments, and AI related layoffs), but I should have included a 5th as well: the effect of the end of the student loan repayment moratorium. As a quick refresher, the Biden Administration enacted […]
– by New Deal democrat Although the temporary continuing resolution was signed last night, reopening the Federal government through January, needless to say the reporting of economic statistics has not yet resumed, meaning that this morning’s scheduled reports on consumer inflation and retail sales for October were not released. So we must continue to rely on […]
– by New Deal democrat From Avika M. Cohen, “Litigation Disaster tour guide”: ——- Ppl need to understand what’s happening here. The GOP response to the shutdown was: You’re gonna cave, or we’re going to hurt vulnerable people by shutting off SNAP. The Dems, unwilling to let that happen, caved. Having watched that, the GOP is […]
– by New Deal democrat This week the normal empty period for new data after the monthly jobs report is of course compounded by the government shutdown. There is no noteworthy new private data coming out until Thursday, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky tomorrow. But today let me follow up on some macro […]
– by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the unadjusted number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated based on reporting by the States, plus DC, and Puerto Rico. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for the same week last year, the seasonally adjusted […]
– by New Deal democrat On a normal first Friday of the month, I would be crunching the official jobs report data to try to provide not just a coincident report on the jobs market, but also to focus on the leading indicators within that report, such as the manufacturing and construction sectors and also […]
– by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey is a long leading indicator, telling us about credit conditions that typically turn worse a year or more before the economy turns down, and improve just at the economy is ready to turn up. Fortunately, since it is reported by the Federal Reserve, it is unaffected […]
– by New Deal democrat With the shutdown of the official government sources, along with the regional Fed indexes, the ISM manufacturing and services indexes have become especially important. To recap, because of manufacturing’s diminished importance to the general economy, the services index has become significantly more important. For forecasting purposes, I assign a 75% weight […]