July JOLTS report: is the game of reverse musical chairs in employment ending? – by New Deal democrat For the past 18 months, I’ve likened the job market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more chairs put out by potential employers than there are job applicants willing to fill them. Also […]
Frozen homeowners mean record low inventory, meaning existing home prices have stopped declining – by New Deal democrat Before discussing this morning’s reports on existing home prices, let’s start with a look at new listings and total active listings of housing inventory, which are very instructive: This information is not seasonally adjusted, and obviously follows a […]
Fed rate hikes in the face of declining commodity prices: an analysis of 4 precedents – by New Deal democrat We live in interesting commodity times. Over the weekend, my latest piece at Seeking Alpha highlighted the strong contrary pulls of higher interest rates and lower commodity prices. While not unique, as we’ll see below, the […]
Weekly Indicators for August 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat While I was away on vacation, the high frequency data continued to pour in. And so my Weekly Indicators post for the week is up at Seeking Alpha. There continue to be some very negative signs associated with interest rates, including important […]
Initial claims improve weekly, continue to suggest slow weaking – by New Deal democrat [Reminder: I’m still traveling, so with no economic news, don’t expect a post tomorrow.] Initial jobless claims declined to 230,000 last week. The more important 4 week average increased to 236,750. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined slightly to […]
Unlike homeowners, home builders can alter their product and (much more flexibly) their price point – by News Deal democrat Yesterday I noted that home builders, unlike existing homeowners trying to sell their existing house, have flexibility in the size and amenities of the house they will build, as well as the price they are […]
Dilemma . . . Do I make a jump to a mortgage at 6 to 7% just to have a bigger house? There is more to this than just interest rates. Building supplies as NDd mention have been an issue. If they are decreasing in cost, builders can lower prices to help sell new houses. […]
Weekly Indicators for August 14 – 18 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat [First of all, a reminder: I am on vacation for the next week, so don’t expect daily posts, especially if no significant economic data is released.] My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While collapsing commodity prices have buoyed the […]
The importance of 10 (and 20) year new highs in interest rates – by New Deal democrat As you may have already read elsewhere, interest rates on the 10 year US Treasury just made a new 10+ year high. Perhaps more importantly, 30 year mortgage rates made a new 20+ year high: Both rates are slightly […]
Initial claims travelin’ man edition: still below cautionary levels – by New Deal democrat Initial claims were 250,000 last week. The 4 week average increased to 234,250. Continuing claims with a one week delay were 1.716 million. Most importantly, YoY the4 week moving average is up 9.5%: This is well below the 12.5% YoY increase […]