New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators December 1-5

 – by New Deal democrat

My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha

There are some minor changes, but no big turns in trends. But the recent change in trend that has been further reinforced is the sharp deceleration in growth in withholding tax payments that began in October. The bulk of the evidence suggests that this is not a result of end of year tax planning, but real signal of a slowdown in labor force and payroll growth.

Late last week we also got further evidence of the bifurcation between the consumer economy and the AI-fueled production economy, in the form of durable goods orders and motor vehicle sales. On a month over month basis, both light vehicle (sedans, SUVs, pickup trucks) increased, as did sales of heavy weight trucks.

The Bad News? Heavy truck sales carry much more, and more reliable, signal than light vehicle sales, and they always turn down sharply first. Which is exactly what they have done in the past few months. The long leading signal of housing construction turned recessionary many months ago, and now the next shoe has clearly dropped.

There is more that you can read at NDd’s site at Seeking Alpha. I am just giving you a few tidbits to wet your curiosity. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to date on all of the relevant economic data, and bring me a little pocket change for my efforts.