New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for November 24 – 28
– by New Deal democrat
My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.
In the aggregate, consumer spending remains robust. On the other hand, as I pointed out yesterday with my aggregation of the various regional Fed reports on manufacturing and services, the largest sector of the US economy appears to be stagnant or even shrinking somewhat. Another big sign that there may have been another ratchet downward in the economy is the deceleration in the YoY withholding tax payments since the beginning of the fiscal year in October (also when the government shutdown started.
- High-frequency weekly indicators suggest the US economy remains resilient, with long leading and coincident indicators generally positive or neutral.
- Short leading indicators are mixed, with commodity prices and US dollar weakness potentially signaling either global demand or underlying US economic softness.
- Consumer spending and stock prices continue to support the positive coincident outlook, but recent tax withholding data continues to hint at possible labor market weakness.
Of interest is the latest update from early November from California, which is 1/8th of the entire US population. There, withholding tax payments have continued to be very strong, up almost 10% YoY in October. If tax changes from the “Big Beautiful Bill” were driving the recent deceleration, i.e., taxpayers waiting until more favorable treatment next year, I would expect tech-heavy California to have lower comparisons than the rest of the country. But the reverse is true, suggesting that it is sluggish job growth that has been driving the sharp deceleration in payments.
In any event, as usual clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the economy, and reward me a little bit for my efforts collecting and collating it all for you.
“New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators November 10 – 14,” Angry Bear by New Deal democrat
Over the next 5 trading days, DJT (Trump Media) should eclipse its all-time low. Hoover was elected President in 1928 with 444 electoral votes to Al Smith’s 81 and near the end of a 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x credit cycle. Trump was elected in 2024 near the end of an interpolated 13/33 year :: x/2.5x credit cycle. Hoover was highly intelligent, a very good businessman, an institutionalist, and an ethical fellow. Whoever won the 2024 election was going to be the recipient of a power law distribution major equity, crypto, gold, commodity market crash. The asset-debt macroeconomic system is elegant in its maximum valuation growth and in its peak to nadir decay valuation simplicity. On 29 Oct 2025 the global equity market reached it’s maximum intraday growth valuation for the 13/33 year cycle. On Thursday 27 Nov 2025 the equity market reached a point of self-organized criticality.
@TEF,
So are you selling all your equity positions?
Gary:
Long time and no see. I guess what you are telling Angry Bear is to convert to cash and related interest growth funds which are less risky?
Good to see you.
I have advised family and friends to convert to insured safe money market funds and short term US debt for a 9-12 months. FOMO is a persistent concern for the younger generations especially after so many years of 6-14% deficit to GDP spending. This crash with its fractal counter trend growth periods will be shorter than the 3 Sept 1929 to 1932 32 month evolution.
TEF:
Just ride out the market with our funds. We are not hanging on the edge with investment betting. I have seen this before and we have always recouped what was lost over a period plus . . . Do we need a balancing? Probably not if the tax breaks were not so large and skewed to a few at the top of the heap. Best to save for the future if it is possible.
Also, too few are discussing disenfranchising of the crowd getting healthcare using Medicaid