I can not drop the f-bomb here as it would not be looked at kindly by most. It is no surprise to me, New Deal democrat doing additional work to present on his site and at Angry Bear. We are and I am very fortunate to have New Deal democrat presenting his data at Angy […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. All of the high frequency data that I gather in those posts comes from the Fed or its regional banks, the States, or private firms. That means it is almost completely unaffected by the federal government shutdown, and can be continually updated for […]
– by New Deal democrat As we all know by now, there is no US jobs report today due to the government shutdown. But there are a number of alternative measures which can give us a good estimate of what the jobs situation is. Let me start first with the unemployment rate. Here is an […]
– by New Deal democrat Oddly, even though the government shutdown has crippled most reporting, the Census Bureau did update the durable goods report for August today, and it does reveal an essential bifurcation in the state of the economy. First, here are the topline leading indicators: total durable goods orders (blue), core capital goods orders […]
– by New Deal democrat It’s Thursday, which typically means it’s time for the weekly initial and continuing jobless claims update. As we all know, the Federal government has shut down, because there is no budget for this fiscal year that began yesterday. BUT, I went back and checked, and during the extended government shutdown in […]
– by New Deal democrat Typically the new month begins with important manufacturing and construction reports; but this morning the construction spending report for August became the first casualty of the government shutdown. The ISM manufacturing report has been a recognized leading indicator for the past 60+ years, although of diminished importance since the turn of […]
– by New Deal democrat In the past year, in contrast to much other data in the jobs sector, the JOLTS reports have been very much consistent with a “soft landing” jobs scenario. In the August report released this morning, the trend weakened slightly. As a quick refresher, this survey decomposes the employment market into […]
– by New Deal democrat Last month the indexes of repeat home sales from the FHFA and S&P Case Shiller were the final confirmation that the housing market was in deflation. That continued in this morning’s reports for July. On a seasonally adjusted basis, in the three month average through June, both the Case-Shiller national index […]
NDd’s Weekly Indicators for September 22 – 26 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Not much change this week, but there are signs that consumer spending is beginning to cool off again. U of M adds to NDd’s comment: “Weakening consumer views of labor markets are not necessarily a […]
– by New Deal democrat Personal income and consumption is one of the two big monthly reports on the state of the average American, in addition to the jobs report. In the past several months, I have looked for a rebound from April and May’s “Liberation Day” aftermath of a cutback in spending. In July […]