– by New Deal democrat We’ve settled back in to our typical post-employment week lack of new data, so today is a good day to update the leading indicators from the employment report, especially in view of their important contribution to why I went on “recession watch” yesterday. As you probably already know, because I harp […]

“Recession Watch” instituted for US economy, as economically weighted ISM indexes indicate present contraction  – by New Deal democrat Two months ago, in response to the new orders components of the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes, I hoisted a yellow flag “Recession Watch.” That continued last month as well. This month the economically […]

 – by New Deal democrat Since Friday featured the very salient jobs report – and its immediate fallout – I delayed reporting on two other important reports that typically start the month – the ISM manufacturing index, and construction spending – until today. As it turns out, they only amplify the message from the employment report […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. In the middle of writing the post yesterday afternoon, the news broke that T—-p had fired Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of the BLS, for the crime of publishing jobs data that he did not like. For the moment, she has been replaced by her […]

 – by New Deal democrat I don’t have time to write a complete report on the ISM manufacturing index for July, and the construction spending report for June, both of which were reported this morning, so I will do that Monday when the ISM services report also comes out. In the meantime, here is this bullet […]

July jobs report: especially with revisions, an awful report that screams near-recession  – by New Deal democrat Let me cut right to the chase in this first sentence: the only reason this employment report was not recessionary is that it did not have a negative number. Aside from that, it was either  flat to awful […]

 – by New Deal democrat In my conclusion last month, I wrote “In the first two months of Q2, total real spending has declined by -0.8%, while services has been basically unchanged. If there is a further decline in June, based on the above discussion that would likely trigger a “recession watch” signal.” To cut to […]

 – by New Deal democrat Today’s GDP report for Q2 was pretty much as we expected, i.e., payback from the front-running of import tariffs in Q1. But as usual, my main focus is on the two long leading components. The headline was a 3.0% annualized increase in real GDP, rebounding from the -0.5% decrease in Q1 […]

 – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS survey for June continued to be consistent with a “soft landing” scenario. This is good news, particularly on a relative basis, since the actions of the new Administration, especially on trade, have exacerbated the fear that this might transform into a “hard” landing, a/k/a a recession. As a quick […]

 – by New Deal democrat This morning’s repeat home sales reports from the FHFA and S&P Case Shiller were not good news for sellers – but very good news for future consumer inflation readings. On a seasonally adjusted basis, in the three month average through May, the Case-Shiller national index (light blue in the graphs below) declined […]