April report for real personal income and spending adds to the evidence that a cyclical peak might ultimately be dated to January – by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated for the past several months, at present the report on personal income and spending is co-equal to the employment report as the most important monthly […]
Initial claims: revisions rear their ugly head again – by New Deal democrat Revisions are a permanent hazard in reporting on economic data. That was very much in evidence in this week’s jobless claims report. Not only was last week’s number revised down by -17,000, but the initial report of 264,000 two weeks ago is […]
Financial markets in past fiscal crises; the “gold standard” of employment reports shows big deceleration in Q4 of last year – by New Deal democrat I have a post up at Seeking Alpha on how stocks, bonds, and consumers behaved during the 3 fiscal crises of the last decade. Hint: recessions are always disinflationary. Also of […]
New home sales and prices: yet another confirmation of a bottom in sales, while prices continue to decline YoY – by New Deal democrat The last of the monthly updates for new home construction, new home sales, was reported this morning. And it continued the theme from the other data (permits, starts, existing home sales); […]
Labor has gained since the pandemic, but corporations have been sucking up the lion’s share of those gains . . . – by New Deal democrat I neglected to add a link to my Weekly Indicators piece at Seeking Alpha on Saturday, so here it is. Also, I’ve been trying to understand why, with all of the […]
Housing update: sales have bottomed, prices in process – by New Deal democrat No important economic news today. Yesterday existing home sales were released, but their economic impact isn’t all that important, except as it can confirm what has been happening with new houses under construction. And confirmation is what it gave us. First, *sales* […]
Jobless claims: yellow caution flag persists – by New Deal democrat In response to last week’s big jump in new jobless claims to 264,000, I wrote that it might be an outlier vs. the beginning of a rising trend. This morning claims fell back to their previous average range, at 242,000. The 4 week average […]
A Fed nightmare? Housing permits and starts confirm improvement from bottom, multi-unit construction sets new record high – by New Deal democrat Housing construction is perhaps the single most important method by which the Fed seeks to translate its interest rate policy into effects on the economy. To be blunt, the Fed’s sledgehammer attempt via […]
March total business sales strongly suggest that real total sales have entered a downturn – by New Deal democrat Today’s final significant economic report was total business sales for March. This is a nominal figure; the “real” number won’t be updated until personal income and spending is reported for April in two weeks. And here, […]
April industrial production looks great! – until you account for the March revisions – by New Deal democrat The second of this morning’s three significant economic releases was April industrial production, and here the revisions were very important. In April total production increased 0.5% from March, but March itself was revised downward by -0.5%, so […]