Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators

Scenes from the March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators  – by New Deal democrat A reminder: I may be offline for the next couple of days. In the meantime, yesterday I looked at the 5 leading indicators contained in the employment report, and summarized how they either signal recession now or within the next […]

Scenes from the March employment report 1: Leading sector indicators

Scenes from the March employment report 1: leading sector indicators  – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news this week until Wednesday’s CPI report, and as a side note, I might be offline for a day or two later this week. In the meantime, today and tomorrow let’s take a look at some […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for April 3 – 7

Weekly Indicators for April 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.  Probably unsurprisingly, the big news this week was the effect of the revisions to the initial jobless claims data, and also the turning down of several sectors in the monthly jobs report. […]

March jobs report: leading sectors turn down, pre-recessionary report still quite positive

March jobs report: leading sectors turn down in a pre-recessionary, but still quite positive, report  – by New Deal democrat Unsurprisingly, my focus on this report, like the last few reports, was on whether residential construction jobs turned negative or not, whether manufacturing and temporary jobs continued on their downward trajectory, and whether the deceleration […]

The last positive leading indicator, Revisions causes initial claims to capitulate

Revisions cause initial claims, the last positive leading indicator, to capitulate  – by New Deal democrat Initial and continuing claims underwent some serious revisions with this week’s release. Rather than attempt an explanation myself, here is the nub of the BLS’s own explanation: Beginning … [this week], the methodology used to seasonally adjust the national […]

One of the last of the positive short-leading indicators rolls over

One of the last of the positive short leading indicators rolls over  – by New Deal democrat The only economic release today of any significance was the ISM non-manufacturing index, which tracks services. It is only about 25 years old, and is not a leading indicator the way its sibling manufacturing index is, but for […]

February JOLTS report shows further relative weakening in the jobs market

February JOLTS report shows further *relative* weakening in the jobs market  – by New Deal democrat The February JOLTS report showed a weakening in almost all important trends. The strongest component of the entire series has been job openings. I tend to place lower significance on this, because there is ample evidence that companies have […]

Both manufacturing and construction continue to contract

Both manufacturing and construction continue to contract  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with data on last month’s manufacturing activity, and the previous month’s construction activity. This month, both were negative. The ISM manufacturing index, which has had an excellent record as a leading indicator for the past 75 years, […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for March 27 – 31

Weekly Indicators for March 27 – 31 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I keep forgetting to put up this link on Saturdays, but you know where to find it: my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The good thing about high frequency indicators is you can see what is happening with trends […]

Real income in February rises slightly; real spending declines slightly; real total sales in January rose sharply

Real income in February rises slightly; real spending declines slightly; real total sales in January rose sharply, as expected  – by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, personal income and outlays is one of the two most important data releases at the current time, along with the monthly jobs report. That’s because […]