– by New Deal democrat In a landmark paper almost 20 years ago, UCLA Prof. Edward Leamer wrote that “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that paper he concluded: In the years before recessions . . . consumers contribute a total of 65% of the leading weakness. In contrast, business spending contributes only 10%…. The temporal […]

 – by New Deal democrat Since Friday featured the very salient jobs report – and its immediate fallout – I delayed reporting on two other important reports that typically start the month – the ISM manufacturing index, and construction spending – until today. As it turns out, they only amplify the message from the employment report […]

 – by New Deal democrat Our data drought won’t end until next Tuesday. In the meantime, let me follow up on a theme from my analysis of the economic data from last week. To wit: there are several metrics that I have already stated are worth a “recession watch;” namely, housing units under construction (down almost […]

– by New Deal democrat Last month the new orders components of the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes warranted the hoisting of a yellow flag “Recession Watch.”  This month that continued. To recap, because manufacturing is much less important to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, the economically weighted average of the […]