– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The trends that have been in place ever since the start of Tariff-palooza!, aided and abetted by the GOP budget-busting bill and the burgeoning Israel-Iran war, are continuing. The US$ is declining, oil prices are spiking, rail traffic has turned negative, and […]
– by New Deal democrat As promised yesterday, today let me take an extended look at the important leading sector of housing. I want to walk through each of the important series generally in the order in which they have typically peaked, and how in at least one important respect this time is – somewhat […]
– by New Deal democrat Because no data will be released tomorrow due to the Federal holiday, I am going to defer a deeper look at the very important housing sector until then. Today I’ll just note the top line indications from this morning’s housing construction data. As per usual, permits are much less noisy than […]
– by New Deal democrat Because tomorrow is the Federal Juneteenth Holiday, initial and continuing claims were released today. They continue to show a slowly weakening, but not (yet) recessionary, economy. Initial claims declined -5,000 to 245,000 for the week, while the four week moving average rose another 4,750 to 245,500. This four week average is […]
– by New Deal democrat Today’s second report was for industrial production, including its important manufacturing component. The data for May was mixed, as total production (blue) declined -0.2%, while manufacturing production (red) increased 0.1% In March I wrote that “I suspect the big increases in February and March in manufacturing, like this morning’s retail […]
– by New Deal democrat We can safely say that the front-running of tariffs is over. As usual, real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it tells us so much about consumers, and since consumption leads employment, it gives us information about the trend in that as well. And this morning’s report for […]
– by New Deal democrat Since a couple of years ago, I temporarily suspended my updating of the long leading indicators. That is because their negative slant in 2022 was completely overcome by the hurricane force tailwind of the unspooling supply chain kinks. By that time the Fed had already raised rates more steeply than at […]
Weekly Indicators for June 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there were no significant changes in the indicators, there is evidence of a downturn in consumer spending compared with the tariff front-running of several months ago, as well as a continued decline […]
– by New Deal democrat It is very difficult to track the impacts of Tariff-palooza! on the US supply chain, due to delays in any sort of accurate reporting. But below is the best overall picture I have been able to decipher. Mainly the delay is focused on the trucking industry, because rail is very concentrated […]
– by New Deal democrat This week’s update in jobless claims was decidedly mixed. Initial claims were unchanged at 248,000. Nevertheless this level was only equaled once and exceeded once in the past year. The four week moving average increased 5,000 to 240,500, the highest number since September 2023. With the typical one week delay, continuing […]