Two important danger signals in the June employment report – by New Deal democrat This is Ben Casellman, Chief Economic Correspondent for The NY Times’s take on last Friday’s employment report: I beg to differ. As I wrote Friday, underneath the headlines, this was a barely positive report – with some significant negatives. Let me […]
– by New Deal democrat There’s no new significant news until Wednesday, so let’s catch up graphically with a few important items from Friday’s employment report for January. As I wrote then, probably the most important developments weren’t in the monthly numbers, but rather the annual revisions to both the Establishment and Household Surveys. For […]
Scenes from the July employment report – by New Deal democrat On Friday I noted that the July employment report was a perfectly good, solid one in absolute terms, but that almost all the leading components were soft and weakening, as I would expect to see near the final stages of an expansion. Let’s take a […]
Another well defined report by NDd about the possibility of recessions. Everything points in such a direction. If the Fed keeps raising its rate, it is almost a foregone conclusion. One a recession starts there is no backing away from it (as if we could). Scenes from the employment report: important leading and coincident indicators […]
Scenes from the June employment report: consumption leads employment, goods vs. services edition – by New Deal democrat No big new economic news today, so let’s take a more in-depth look at some of the information from Friday’s employment report. Today I’m going to focus on the division between goods and services. As I’ve written […]
Scenes from the November employment report: the short leading jobs indicators – by New Deal Democrat Every month as part of my post on the jobs report, I run through the changes in those measures which are short leading indicators for the economy. There were some significant developments in the past several months, so let’s […]
Initial claims: a little cooling in the white hot employment market Initial jobless claims rose 21,000 to 218,000, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average also rose by 8,250 to 199,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set six weeks ago. On the other hand, […]
JOLTS report for January: the game of employment musical chairs continues The Census Bureau JOLTS report for January, released this morning, indicates that the jobs market continues to be nowhere near equilibrium – which continues to be a good thing for workers’ wages. Several months ago I introduced the idea of a game similar […]
Pandemic job losses: when should we begin a see a real improvement back towards “full employment”? Let’s take a deeper look at where employment stands as we begin to see the end of the pandemic in sight. As I and many others noted last Friday, although with the exception of one month there have been […]
The employment report shows signs of an improved employment situation, but on balance it looks like more of the same. The unemployment rate fell 0.2 points to 8.5%. This continues the recent trend of a falling unemployment rate. But the drop was also driven by anther 50,000 drop in thelabor force. But the increase in […]