Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

November employment report

Scenes from the November employment report: the short leading jobs indicators – by New Deal Democrat Every month as part of my post on the jobs report, I run through the changes in those measures which are short leading indicators for the economy. There were some significant developments in the past several months, so let’s […]

Initial claims: a little cooling in the white hot employment market

Initial claims: a little cooling in the white hot employment market Initial jobless claims rose 21,000 to 218,000, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average also rose by 8,250 to 199,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set six weeks ago. On the other hand, […]

The game of employment musical chairs continues

JOLTS report for January: the game of employment musical chairs continues The Census Bureau JOLTS report for January, released this morning, indicates that the jobs market continues to be nowhere near equilibrium – which continues to be a good thing for workers’ wages.   Several months ago I introduced the idea of a game similar […]

When should we begin a see a real improvement back towards “full employment”?

Pandemic job losses: when should we begin a see a real improvement back towards “full employment”? Let’s take a deeper look at where employment stands as we begin to see the end of the pandemic in sight. As I and many others noted last Friday, although with the exception of one month there have been […]

Employment Situation

The employment report shows signs of an improved employment situation, but on balance it looks like more of the same. The unemployment rate fell 0.2 points to 8.5%. This continues the recent trend of a falling unemployment rate. But the drop was also driven by anther 50,000 drop in thelabor force. But the increase in […]

Employment Situation…Spencer England

The employment report continues to report a sluggish economy and employment growth. The payroll report showed a gain of 120,000 jobs in November, consisting of a 140,000 gain in private payrolls and a 20,000 drop in government employment. The household survey months showed the stronger gains it has in recent with a gain of some […]

Economic Perspectives

If you are an investor the good news is that productivity growth improved sharply. Unit labor cost fell in the third quarter and the spread between pricing and labor cost widened nicely. This implies that earnings growth is accelerating and that my earlier fears that earnings expectations were too high is no longer a problem. […]

Employment Situation

The employment report showed little evidence that the trends of the past year have changed.Over the past three months private payroll employment grew some 72,000, 191,000 and 104,000while government employment fell 132,000, 33,000 and 24,000. The one encouraging signs was the third strong month of employment growth reported in the household survey. Over the last […]

Employment Situation

The September employment report was among the strongest this cycle. Private payroll employment rose 137,000 and despite the 34,000 drop in government employment totalpayroll employment rose 103,000. Moreover, the household survey showed a gain of 398,000.Even so, by historic norms employment continues to be weak. But compared to the other jobless recoveries this cycle continues […]