Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

When should we begin a see a real improvement back towards “full employment”?

Pandemic job losses: when should we begin a see a real improvement back towards “full employment”? Let’s take a deeper look at where employment stands as we begin to see the end of the pandemic in sight. As I and many others noted last Friday, although with the exception of one month there have been […]

Employment Situation

The employment report shows signs of an improved employment situation, but on balance it looks like more of the same. The unemployment rate fell 0.2 points to 8.5%. This continues the recent trend of a falling unemployment rate. But the drop was also driven by anther 50,000 drop in thelabor force. But the increase in […]

Employment Situation…Spencer England

The employment report continues to report a sluggish economy and employment growth. The payroll report showed a gain of 120,000 jobs in November, consisting of a 140,000 gain in private payrolls and a 20,000 drop in government employment. The household survey months showed the stronger gains it has in recent with a gain of some […]

Economic Perspectives

If you are an investor the good news is that productivity growth improved sharply. Unit labor cost fell in the third quarter and the spread between pricing and labor cost widened nicely. This implies that earnings growth is accelerating and that my earlier fears that earnings expectations were too high is no longer a problem. […]

Employment Situation

The employment report showed little evidence that the trends of the past year have changed.Over the past three months private payroll employment grew some 72,000, 191,000 and 104,000while government employment fell 132,000, 33,000 and 24,000. The one encouraging signs was the third strong month of employment growth reported in the household survey. Over the last […]

Employment Situation

The September employment report was among the strongest this cycle. Private payroll employment rose 137,000 and despite the 34,000 drop in government employment totalpayroll employment rose 103,000. Moreover, the household survey showed a gain of 398,000.Even so, by historic norms employment continues to be weak. But compared to the other jobless recoveries this cycle continues […]

16 Weeks – Old Enough to Drive, not Working

Will those who are claiming that the economy is recovering and things are better please explain why, as of today, we have sixteen straight weeks of “seasonally adjusted” UI claims above 400,000? I’m now convinced that there will be no troop reductions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, or any of the other places where we’re conducting […]


The employment was bad news as payroll employment only rose by 18,000 as compared to the last months disappointing rise of 25,000. Government employment fell 39,000 versus 48,000 inMay. Private payrolls expanded only 57,000 that was even weaker than the prior months 73,000. Over the last two months payroll employment was essentially unchanged. Moreover, the […]


The employment report was the strongest this cycle as total payroll employment expanded some 216,000. This consisted of a 230,000 gain in private payrolls and a 14,000 drop in government jobs as state and local governments are still shedding jobs. Moreover, the household survey reported a 291,000 gain in employment. The last two months private […]