If you are not reading New Deal democrat as he marks the progress of the economy over the last year, you really should start. The detail on what certain economic markers determine are in his weekly analysis done on a daily basis for various markers. Updating 3 high frequency indictors: no recession yet, but no […]

February existing home sales confirm prices have declined, but bottom in sales and construction may be in  – by New Deal democrat There were only two noteworthy takeaways from the February existing home sales report: (1) like mortgage applications, permits, and starts, existing home sales responded to lower mortgage rates (a decline from just over […]

Average and aggregate nonsupervisory wages for February 2023  – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news today, so let’s update a couple of income indicators important to average American working households. Namely, because we now have the inflation report for February as well as payrolls, we can update average and aggregate nonsupervisory wages. […]

Industrial production ‘meh’ in February, but down sharply since last summer; real manufacturing and trade sales forecast to decline in Febuary  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production was unchanged for the month of February, while manufacturing production rose +0.1%. But the bad news is that both were revised lower for the past 5 months, as […]

Housing construction: good news and bad news  – by New Deal democrat This morning’s report on housing construction contained both good news and bad news. First, the good news. Both permits (gold in the graph below) and starts (blue) increased, the former by 185,000 on an annualized rate, the latter by 129,000: It is very possible […]

Jobless claims: nobody is (still!) getting laid off  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -20,000 this week, back below 200,000 to 192,000. The 4 week average declined -750 to 196,500. Continuing claims, delayed one week, declined -29,000 to 1.684 million: For all intents and purposes, it is still the case that “nobody” […]

Forecast: real manufacturing and trade sales are likely to set a new record for January  – by New Deal democrat One of the four monthly series of coincident indicators most relied upon by the NBER in determining whether the economy is in expansion or recession is Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. A significant problem with it […]

Properly measured, consumer prices have been in *deflation* since last June  – by New Deal democrat The majority wisdom is that the Fed is going to go ahead and raise interest rates again when it meets next week. I have been arguing for months that the data has not supported interest rate hikes. As of this […]

Thoughts on Silicon Valley Bank: Why the FDIC plan isn’t (but also is) a bailout; and why systemic risk remains  – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic data being released today. Which I guess is fortunate, since we had a little kerfuffle over the weekend. Which may or may not be over. Herewith hopefully […]

February jobs report: the decelerating trend resumes   – by New Deal democrat As I’ve written several times this week, my focus on this report was on whether manufacturing and residential construction jobs turned negative or not, whether temporary jobs continued on their downward trajectory, and whether the deceleration apparent in job growth would reappear after […]