– by New Deal democrat The story of consumer prices in May is the same as it has been for the past several months: virtually everything except for shelter costs, and the even more lagging sector of transportation services, were somnolent. If the Fed wanted to, it could have declared victory many months ago. To […]

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no new important data again today, so let me update a few high frequency indicators in which I am looking for signs of weakness. First, Redbook’s consumer retail sales weekly report came out this morning, showing a 4.7% YoY increase. This is one of the 8 lowest increases in the […]

 – by New Deal democrat As per usual for the week after the employment report, there is no new data until Wednesday’s CPI report. So let’s take a further look at some of the information from Friday’s report, as well as several other reports from last week in the goods-producing and sales sector. In the 40 […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Very slowly the effects of price increases and supply disruptions from the tariffs are making their way into the data. This week was the first suggestion it may have begun to affect consumer spending. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you […]

 – by New Deal democrat Even before the new Administration took office in Washington, my focus had been on whether the economy would have a “soft” or “hard” landing, i.e., recession. That has only intensified by the utter chaos of tariff-palooza! So my focus now is looking for “hard” vs.”soft” data indicating its impact. This month’s […]

– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims. Particularly since it is one of two “quick and dirty” elements that will indicate whether the “recession watch” I inaugurated yesterday will need to be upgraded to a “warning.” Initial claims rose 8,000 last week to 247,000, while the four week moving average […]

 – by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded my report on the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes by writing “new orders for the entire economy are tight on the cusp of tipping into contraction.” This month, they did, warranting a “Recession Watch.” To recap, because manufacturing is much less important to the economy […]

 – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey, which decomposes the employment market into job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, was reported this morning for April. In 2024 the data were most consistent with a “soft landing,” but the actions of the new Administration, especially on trade, have exacerbated the fear that this might transform into […]

– by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look now at construction spending for April. To cut to the chase, in all respects there was a continued decline. In nominal terms, total construction spending declined -0.4%, while the more leading residential construction spending declined -0.9%, the third straight month for declines in both measures: Total […]

Usually, I place New Deal democrat’s title for his post above. I made it simpler for readers this time to get his point across. Briefly: Between the combination of manufacturing (25% of the economy) and non-manufacturing (75% of the economy), the economic growth of the nation is moving like a slug or as New Deal […]