– by New Deal democrat Next up in today’s slew of data is retail sales. This is one of the most important indicators I look at, because it tells us so much about consumers, and since consumption leads employment, it gives us information about the trend in that as well. In April, nominally retail sales […]

Jobless claims: more of the same  – by New Deal democrat After a long data drought, there are many releases today. I’ll start with jobless claims. Initial claims were unchanged at 229,000, while the four week moving average rose 2,250 to 230,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.881 million: […]

 – by New Deal democrat Now that we have April’s consumer inflation data, let’s update real wages for average American families. In April average hourly wages for nonsupervisory employees increased 0.3%, and aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory employees increased 0.4%. Since CPI increased 0.2%, in real terms wages (light blue) increased 0.1% and aggregate payrolls (dark blue) […]

 – by New Deal democrat Last month, I wrote that the March CPI report was the one we had been waiting for for the past three years. April’s was the second one in a row. To cut to the chase, there were no major components besides shelter which qualified as “problem children,” i.e., sectors with 4.0% […]

 – by New Deal democrat We’re still in a new data drought. CPI is out tomorrow, and then a slew of data on Thursday. In the meantime there is one more data point that helps explain why consumers are still powering the economy forward. The Atlanta Fed maintains a “wage tracker” that measures wage growth, […]

“Every time inflation went up more than aggregate payrolls YoY, it marked the beginning of a recession +/- 2 months.“ More fuel to help consumers deal with tariffs: real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls likely increased again in April  – by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators is both a significant update from last week’s jobs […]

 – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims returned to a well-behaved range this week, down -13,000 to 228,000. The four week moving average was in line, increasing 1,000 to 227,000. Continuing claims, with the typical one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1.879 million, which is still near the top end of their 12 month range: […]

 – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a belated look at some of the more important datapoints that came out of last Friday’s employment report for April. To start with, as I’ve mentioned numerous times, frequently service jobs (blue in the graph below) continue increasing all the way through recessions. It is goods producing jobs (red) […]

 – by New Deal democrat Back in March I took a look at how producers and consumers reacted to periods of high political policy uncertainty, concluding that usually in the past consumers had reacted first, somewhere between almost simultaneously to with a one quarter delay, and producers reacted afterward to the downturn in demand by cutting back […]

– by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is much less important to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, the economically weighted average of the ISM services index (75%) as well as manufacturing (25%), especially over a three month period, has been much more accurate since 2000. In April the important aspects of the […]