– by New Deal democrat Yesterday the existing home sales report showed continued deceleration in YoY price increases to 1.3%, along with an increase in inventory of houses for sale, indicative of the ongoing rebalancing of the housing market. This morning’s repeat home sales reports from the FHFA and S&P Case Shiller strongly confirmed that deceleration and ongoing […]

 – by New Deal democrat Next up in today’s slew of data is retail sales. This is one of the most important indicators I look at, because it tells us so much about consumers, and since consumption leads employment, it gives us information about the trend in that as well. In April, nominally retail sales […]

 – by New Deal democrat Last month, I wrote that the March CPI report was the one we had been waiting for for the past three years. April’s was the second one in a row. To cut to the chase, there were no major components besides shelter which qualified as “problem children,” i.e., sectors with 4.0% […]

 – by New Deal democrat My question over the past year had been whether “decleration” into a “soft landing”would turn into “deterioration” towards a recession. That has now been overtaken by events in the form of T—-p‘s tariffs and trade wars. So my focus now is looking for hard data, rather than reports of sentiment, […]

Interesting comments by Jamie Dimon on Quartz. “JPMorgan Chase CEO warns the U.S. economy is not done with trade war chaos yet.” Who would have thought such would not be true? Our president is a master at chaos. Chaos is his trademark. And the trade war chaos? First tariffs, then no tariffs. Its 10 percent, […]

Jobless claims continue to reflect slowly expanding economy  – by New Deal democrat I dealt with the March CPI report yesterday; I will update jobless claims today. On a weekly basis, initial claims rose 4,000 to 223,000. The four week moving average also was at 223,000, unchanged from last week. And with the typical one week […]