– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. As I wrote about here this week, the supply chain effects of the tariffs have finally bled through to rail shipments, and probably trucking as well. Meanwhile, despite all the uncretainty, as we saw yesterday with the personal income and spending report, consumers […]

 – by New Deal democrat We finish the month of May with the very important personal income and spending for April, which gives us a thorough look at the consumer. In this case it is particularly complicated by the fact that “Liberation Day” tariffs and various further retaliatory increases were imposed at various times during the […]

 – by New Deal democrat Let me start this post by picking up where I left off yesterday. In yesterday’s post I suggested that an absolute YoY decline in intermodal rail freight might well show up in this morning’s report from the AAR. And as the below chart shows, that’s exactly what happened, with intermodal traffic […]

 – by New Deal democrat One of the main reasons I include the last two years when I write about initial and continued jobless claims is that a distinct unresolved post-pandemic seasonality has developed. Even after seasonal adjustment, claims have tended to rise in the late spring towards the summer, and then decline beginning in late […]

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant new economic data today, so let’s take an updated look at the downstream effects on the supply chain and retail sales so far from T—-p’s tariffs. To begin with, at least some of the tariffs are indeed in effect. Here is a graph from Ben Casselman of The […]

 – by New Deal democrat Last week the existing home sales report showed continued deceleration in YoY price increases to 1.8%, indicative of the ongoing rebalancing of the housing market. This morning’s repeat home sales reports from the FHFA and S&P Case Shiller confirmed that deceleration and ongoing rebalancing. On a seasonally adjusted basis, in […]

Weekly Indicators for May 19 – 23 at Seeking Alpha (plus bonus charts)  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The effects of Tariff-paloooza! are like a slowly building tsunami. The tide rolled out, but now far out at sea there is a horizon to horizon white wall of foam. […]

by New Deal democrat From Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address: “… [O]ur fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal. “Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can […]

  – by New Deal democrat Since new and existing home sales were released just one day apart, I figured I would report on both of them together; in particular because for well over a year I have been looking for, and tracking, the rebalancing of this market, where a lack of inventory of existing homes […]

 – by New Deal democrat Today let me address the GOP bust-out budget bill, and how that plays into Moody’s downgrade of US debt last week. And the bottom line is that, it is bad. The rubber is starting to hit the road. Let me start out with the below graph from the CBO of the […]