– by New Deal democrat Since a couple of years ago, I temporarily suspended my updating of the long leading indicators. That is because their negative slant in 2022 was completely overcome by the hurricane force tailwind of the unspooling supply chain kinks. By that time the Fed had already raised rates more steeply than at […]

Weekly Indicators for June 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. My paradigm is: first the long leading indicators turn. Then the short leading indicators turn. Then the coincident indicators turn. Finally the lagging indicators turn. For months I have been documenting the downturn […]

Initial jobless claims now in a clear uptrend, and other economic notes for the week First, a note on other economic news from earlier this week.  The housing market is getting absolutely crushed by 10 year+ high mortgage rates. Mortgage applications fell to levels not seen since 2017 (except for a few weeks during the […]