As outlined in Monday’s report, NDd will cover the impact of a tariff caused recession in his daily reports. Daily T—-p tariff recession watch: no evidence of hard data deterioration to start  – by New Deal democrat Are the T—-p tariffs quickly putting the US into a recession?  As I wrote yesterday, there are two daily […]

Angry Bear will continue to present my fellow writer and acquaintance who I met at Pomo’s Pizzeria in Phoenix while he was on vacation. Great pizza, wine, and conversation. “Is a T—-p Tariff recession starting? My plan for real-time daily, weekly, and intramonth updates“  – by New Deal democrat Normally on the Monday after the […]

– by New Deal democrat My question over the past year has been whether “deceleration” would turn into “deterioration.” For a “soft landing,” deceleration would need to end, and the numbers stabilize, vs. continuing to deteriorate towards an actual downturn. With the stupefying economic moves by the new Administration, looking for hard data indicating the onset […]

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. You may be surprised to learn that despite the 10%+ stock market crash on Thursday and Friday, my rating for the short leading indicator of the S&P 500 is still “neutral.” That’s because the market is extremely volatile. There was an all-time […]

– by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is much less important to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, the economically weighted average of the ISM services index (75%) as well as manufacturing (25%), especially over a three-month period, has been much more accurate since 2000. In March the expansionary headline and new […]

– by New Deal democrat This week initial jobless claims declined -6,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average declined -1,250 to 223,000. With the typical one-week delay, continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.903 million, the highest number since 2021: Since last year this week there was something of an outlier to the upside, by […]

“Those who cannot see must feel:” global trade and tariffs edition  – by New Deal democrat Before I get to today’s data, let me make this brief note on the tariffs that were announced late yesterday and the instant reaction overnight. As to the effect on the US and global economy, I really don’t have anything […]

– by New Deal democrat  Along with all the other reports, yesterday the JOLTS survey was updated for February. This survey decomposes the employment market into openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, and so gives a more granular view. The question over the past year has been whether they best describe a “soft landing,” or “hard” […]

February construction spending: nominal vs. real makes all the difference  – by New Deal democrat Since the turn of the Millennium, a downturn in manufacturing has not been enough to tip the economy into recession. There must also be a decline in construction as well. This morning’s construction spending report for February painted a substantially […]

 – by New Deal democrat After this morning’s contractionary ISM manufacturing report, it occurred to me to look at heavy truck sales to see if they confirmed the downturn. They did, but like the manufacturing index.  Heavy Truck versus Light Trucks. Which models are they? Heavy Trucks are 14000 lbs+ or class 4. While passenger […]