Scenes from the blockbuster January jobs report 2: revisions do not resolve discrepancies in the reports  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that the blockbuster January jobs report was essentially the result of two factors: (1) a very low number of potential applicants in the jobs pool with an unemployment rate well under 4% […]

Scenes from the blockbuster jobs report 1: in January, nobody* got laid off! (*hyperbole)  – by New Deal democrat There’s no important new economic data until Thursday this week. Meanwhile, there was lots to digest about Friday’s blockbuster jobs report, which I have now done, so I’m going to spend a couple (maybe 3!) days […]

Weekly Indicators for January 30 – February 3 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While yesterday’s blockbuster jobs report dominated the monthly reports, several important weekly reports, notably the 4 week average of retail sales as measured by Redbook, and the temporary Staffing Index, weakened further […]

January jobs report: like a sports car at maximum acceleration    – by New Deal democrat My focus on this report was on whether manufacturing and construction jobs turned negative or not, and whether the deceleration apparent in job growth would continue. Both of those were answered emphatically in the negative. Here’s my in depth synopsis. HEADLINES: […]

JOLTS and jobless claims: the labor market remains a strong positive  – by New Deal democrat The message from the JOLTS report for December yesterday and jobless claims for last week today is that the labor market remains the strongest sector of the economy, with plenty of unfilled job openings, and almost no layoffs. Initial […]

January manufacturing at recessionary levels; December construction spending also declines  – by New Deal democrat The first data for the month of January is in, and with one exception, it is pretty bad. The ISM manufacturing index declined -1.0 to 47.4. According to the ISM, 48 is the cutoff below which is more consistent with […]

House price indexes for November: up like a rocket, down like a feather  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated many times in the past 10 years, in housing prices follow sales with a lag. Housing permits peaked at the beginning of 2022, and starts followed several months later.  This morning the FHFA and […]

What to watch most for in this Friday’s jobs report  – by New Deal democrat After a two week drought, this week a plethora of economic stats get reported. Most importantly for my purposes that includes house prices, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report, and of course on Friday nonfarm payrolls. Speaking of which, 3 […]

Weekly Indicators for January 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat “Slowly I turn. Step by step . . .” That old Vaudeville bit comes to mind in watching the coincident indicators creep towards a recessionary downturn on a weekly basis. Also, some of the long leading indicators are also creeping […]

Good news and bad news on personal income and spending  – by New Deal democrat December personal income and spending had some material for both optimists and pessimists. Let’s look at the good news first, mainly having to do with inflation. Both the total and core personal consumption deflator continued their overall deceleration in December, […]