– by New Deal democrat In ordinary times, new home sales are important because while they are very noisy and heavily revised, they are the most leading of all housing metrics. They remain important even presently because they can tell us about the underlying upward or downward pressure on the economy going forward one year […]

Regional Feds so far on general business conditions in April: the worst since July 2022  – by New Deal democrat Three of the five regional Feds that report on their region’s state of the economy have now reported for April. With one exception in the data, everything is negative. On the manufacturing side, the NY Fed […]

 – by New Deal democrat Typically this is a week where I pay the most attention to incoming housing data in the form of both new and existing home sales, but because we live in “interesting times,” this week it’s different. The Sword of Damocles hanging over the entire economy is policy uncertainty, for unfortunately […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. It remains notable how quickly many of the short leading indicators have turned up. But there has been no discernible hit to consumption. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the […]

“A large, slow-moving gun fired at the economy and the bullet is still in the air”  – by New Deal democrat A poster named Micah on Bluesky has written “the China tariffs were a large, slow-moving gun fired at the economy and the bullet is still in the air” By this, he is referring to the […]

– by New Deal democrat The housing market has historically been led by mortgage rates. And since those have been relatively rangebound for most of the past 2.5 years in the 6%-7% range, housing permits and starts have similarly followed. This morning those trends continued. Total permits (dark blue in the graph below) increased 23,000 on […]

 – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims continued to be well-behaved last week. Per this morning’s report, they declined -9.000 to 215,000, while the four week moving average declined -2,500 to 220,750. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims increased 41,000 to 1.885 million – which, despite the big weekly increase, is right in […]

 – by New Deal democrat The former King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, has faded ever since the “China shock” at the beginning of the Millennium. Downturns in production almost always coincided with the onset of recessions beforehand. Since then, there have been several big downturns, in 2015-16, 2019, and a smaller one in 2023-24, […]

 – by New Deal democrat Normally real retail sales is one of the indicators I treat as most important, because it tells us so much about consumer behavior, which is not only 70% of the economy, but also has a lengthy track record for leading both employment and the coincident indicators for recession. Not this […]

– by New Deal democrat Over the weekend, in my high frequency “Weekly Indicators” post, I wrote that in the past month, the bulk of the short leading indicators had turned from being positive to negative. Which of course raises the question, should I go on recession watch? To help resolve that, I took a […]