Q4 2022 GDP positive, but both long leading components continue negative – by New Deal democrat Here’s my last note for this morning. Real Q4 GDP came in at +0.7%, or +2.8% annualized. While this is lower than most quarters in the past several years, as shown below: Although not shown (due to the huge […]
Durable goods orders come in mixed; leaving only employment indicators as short term positives for the economy – by New Deal democrat Manufacturers’ durable goods orders, and in particular “core” orders, which exclude defense and transportation (a/k/a Boeing), are (albeit noisy) a short leading indicator. I normally don’t pay too much attention to them because […]
Jobless claims continue recent strong streak Programming note: I’ll put up separate posts on durable goods orders, real manufacturing and trade sales, and the Q4 GDP reports later. Initial jobless claims have been the best performing – and perhaps only positive – element of the short leading indicators in the past few months. And that […]
Three most quickly reported measures of coincident indicators – all of which are close to turning negative – by New Deal democrat While we await tomorrow morning’s deluge of Almost Every Economic Series Imaginable, I have posted over at Seeking Alpha a detailed look at one measure of consumer spending and two of employment which will give […]
Index of leading indicators says recession almost certain; so what of the coincident indicators? – by New Deal democrat This week is one of those where almost all of the important data is crammed into one day – in this case, Thursday, when Q4 GDP, initial claims, real manufacturng and trade sales, durable goods orders, […]
How “FHFA-CPI” using house prices rather than OER shows a sharp deceleration in inflation – by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman made another foray into the “inflation is mostly gone” genre over the weekend with a thread on Mastodon that largely relied on the following graph: concluding that “[A]t this point the burden of proof lies on […]
Weekly Indicators for January 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat I forgot to post this yesterday, so here you go today . . . My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Every now and then you get a contratrend week, when a bunch of metrics move in the opposite direction […]
Existing home sales and prices decline; plus, a closer look at multi-unit housing construction – by New Deal democrat I will keep my comments on December existing home sales and prices brief. That’s because, even though they make up about 90% of the total market, they have much less economic impact than new home construction. […]
The actual Big News in this morning’s housing report was – positive – by New Deal democrat For the second month in a row, the biggest news in the housing report was not in the headlines. Most of what you are going to read is about how bad housing permits and starts were, and that […]
Jobless claims continue their string of good news – by New Deal democrat If yesterday’s economic data was bad, this morning’s was considerably better (I’ll post on housing construction later). Initial jobless claims declined 15,000 to 195,000, tied for their best number in almost 8 months. The 4 week moving average declined 6,500 to 206,000, […]