– by New Deal democrat This week initial jobless claims declined -6,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average declined -1,250 to 223,000. With the typical one-week delay, continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.903 million, the highest number since 2021: Since last year this week there was something of an outlier to the upside, by […]

“Those who cannot see must feel:” global trade and tariffs edition  – by New Deal democrat Before I get to today’s data, let me make this brief note on the tariffs that were announced late yesterday and the instant reaction overnight. As to the effect on the US and global economy, I really don’t have anything […]

– by New Deal democrat  Along with all the other reports, yesterday the JOLTS survey was updated for February. This survey decomposes the employment market into openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, and so gives a more granular view. The question over the past year has been whether they best describe a “soft landing,” or “hard” […]

February construction spending: nominal vs. real makes all the difference  – by New Deal democrat Since the turn of the Millennium, a downturn in manufacturing has not been enough to tip the economy into recession. There must also be a decline in construction as well. This morning’s construction spending report for February painted a substantially […]

 – by New Deal democrat After this morning’s contractionary ISM manufacturing report, it occurred to me to look at heavy truck sales to see if they confirmed the downturn. They did, but like the manufacturing index.  Heavy Truck versus Light Trucks. Which models are they? Heavy Trucks are 14000 lbs+ or class 4. While passenger […]

ISM manufacturing index returns to contraction as the front-running of tariffs has ended  – by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll report separately on construction spending, also released this morning] Although manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, (it was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession), the ISM manufacturing […]

 – by New Deal democrat The deluge of new monthly data starts tomorrow. Today there’s no significant data, so let me follow up on a point from Friday’s personal income and spending report. I never look to see what others are saying before I finish my own analysis, because I want to be as unbiased as […]

“Arctic sea ice makes new record low annual max,” National Snow and Ice Data Center  – by New Deal democrat On Sunday I occasionally post about topics of interest unrelated to economics. So today, let’s take note of a significant milestone in global warming. Specifically, the arctic has just had its lowest peak ever for sea ice […]

Real income, spending, saving, and sales continue to be expansionary  – by New Deal democrat Real income and spending are two of the most important indicators of the well-being of the consumer. With the general weakening of the economy, I have been looking to see if in particular real spending on goods would sputter. Signs […]

Weekly Indicators for March 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most important news in high frequency data was that we now have 4 of 5 reports from regional Feds for March, and all four showed a decline from last month, and 3 […]