Scenes from the December jobs report: more deceleration – by New Deal democrat The only significant economic data this week will be released on Thursday, with both CPI and jobless claims. In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at the jobs data we got last Friday. As indicated in the title of this post, […]
In which I quibble with Prof. Alan Blinder about the main reason for the decline in inflation since June – by New Deal democrat Alan S. Blinder is getting traction for an opinion piece published in the WSJ concerning the big decline in inflation since June. He acknowledges that“ energy inflation played a meaningful role” but […]
Weekly Indicators for January 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. No big changes from the past month or so. The overall economic picture continues to be driven by the effects of the price of gas. As usual, clicking over and reading will […]
December jobs report: good headlines, but deceleration continues – by New Deal democrat If the long leading indicators all last year, and the majority of the short leading indicators from the past few months are to be believed, a recession is near. And if that is the case, we ought to see the leading […]
December manufacturing, new orders both decline further, to readings even more on the cusp of recession – by New Deal democrat I described last month’s ISM manufacturing reading as being one “on the cusp of recession.” Well, this month’s reading was even cusp-ier. To recapitulate, this index has a very long and reliable history. Going back […]
New jobless claims end 2022 on a positive note; preview of tomorrow’s jobs report – by New Deal democrat Initial claims started off the year – or ended last year if you are technical about it – on a positive note, declining 19,000 to a 3-month low of 204,000. The more important 4 week moving […]
November JOLTS report consistent with a continued “hot” labor market – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report for November showed both continuing decelerating trends in some series, but overall a picture of a labor market that continued “hot.” Here’s the graph I ran one month ago of job openings, hires, quits, and total separations: […]
2023 data begins with another lesson: the remedy for high prices is – high prices – by New Deal democrat And so, another year begins. And kicks off with a look at the leading housing sector. And furthermore, there is even some good news. Total construction spending in November rose 0.2% for the month, while the […]
– by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is also up at Seeking Alpha. The volatile coincident consumer numbers bounced higher this week, while another recession indicating system flashed red, suggesting a recession is most likely to start during the 2nd Quarter of 2023. As usual, clicking over and reading my commentary at Seeking […]
Initial claims close out the year still positive – by New Deal democrat This morning we got the final economic news of the year, as initial claims for the week rose 9,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average declined 250 to 221,000. Continuing claims rose 41,000 to 1,710,000, a 10-month high: The weekly number was […]