Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

October Manufacturing (near record low) and Construction Decline

November manufacturing and October construction both decline, the former almost at recessionary levels  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we begin the new month’s data with the ISM manufacturing index. This index has a very long and reliable history. Going back almost 75 years, the new orders index has always fallen below 50 within 6 months […]

Strong personal income and spending – near record low in saving

Strong personal income and spending contrast with near record low in saving  – by New Deal democrat Like retail sales earlier in November, personal income and spending both rose smartly, as shown in the below graph of real retail sales compared with real personal spending: Real personal income was up 0.4%, and real personal spending increased […]

Jobless claims get closer to signaling recession

Initial jobless claims get closer to signaling recession  – by New Deal democrat Today is one of those data-palooza days, so I’ll put up separate posts on personal income and spending, and the ISM manufacturing report and construction spending reports later. But let’s start with weekly jobless claims, and the news here is OK for […]

Oct JOLTS report: Job Market deceleration and Job Opening Gap

October JOLTS report shows continued deceleration in jobs market, with continuing gap in job openings filled  – by New Deal democrat For the past year, I have likened the jobs market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more chairs than players. Some chairs are always left empty. The chairs are jobs, […]

House price indexes continue to show the top is in

– by New Deal democrat House price indexes continue to show the top is in The FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were reported this morning, with both continuing to show that the peak in house prices took place during the summer. For the month, the seasonally adjusted FHFA index rose +0.1%, vs. a […]

Still signs that a bottoming process might be taking place

New home sales adjusted for cancellations: still signs that a bottoming process might be taking place by NewDeal democrat I had a correspondent question me about whether new home sales might actually be in the process of bottoming, due to the big increase in the percentage of cancellations, as shown below (via Bill McBride): This […]

Have new home sales made a bottom?

Have new home sales made a bottom?  – by New Deal democrat Hopefully you are recovering from your turkey coma today. Here’s a little late commentary on Wednesday’s new home sales report. New home sales are noisy, and heavily revised, which is why I prefer housing permits, and especially single family housing permits, as a […]

Jobless claims have a poor week, rising to multi-month highs

Jobless claims have a poor week, rising to multi-month highs  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 17,000 this week to 240,000, a 3 month high. The 4 week average also rose by 5,500 to 226,750. Continuing claims one week ago rose 48,000 to 1,551,000, the highest number since March: While […]

More on deteriorating tax withholding receipts and jobs reports

More on deteriorating tax withholding receipts and jobs reports  – by New Deal democrat I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha, laying out all of the short leading indicators, and concluding conditions have now been met for a recession to begin at any point in the next 6 months. There’s one graph I intended […]

Coronavirus dashboard for Thanksgiving week 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for Thanksgiving week 2022  – by New Deal democrat As we start Thanksgiving week, let’s take a look at the current state of COVID. The Alphabet Soup of variants (most of which are direct descendants of BA.5), primarily BQ.1&1.1, has largely displaced their parent, which is down to 24% of all cases: Typically […]