– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Last week I wrote that exogenous factors – like political decisions – could have nearly simultaneous effects across all timeframes of indicators. In other words, the long and short leading indicators as well as the coincident indicators, could all react at the […]

 – by New Deal democrat There were two important points in this morning’s personal income and spending report for January. The first is that there appears to be some unresolved seasonality at work. The second is that nevertheless both were weaker than one year ago. Nominally personal income rose 0.9%, while spending declined -0.2%. Since […]

– by New Deal democrat This week’s report on initial jobless claims was of particular interest, because of the issue of whether Federal employees laid off by the new Administration would cause an increase. It appears they did. Initial jobless claims rose 22,000 for the week to 242,000, and the four week moving average rose 8,500 […]

More unwelcome news in (new) house prices, while sales continue sideways trend  – by New Deal democrat I almost always start out my post on new home sales by indicating that, while they are the most leading of all housing metrics, they are very noisy and heavily revised. That was true in spades for this […]

– by New Deal democrat There was unwelcome news in this morning’s repeat home sales reports from the FHFA and Case-Shiller. On a seasonally adjusted basis, in the three-month average through December, according to the Case-Shiller national index (light blue in the graphs below) prices rose 0.5%, and the somewhat more leading FHFA purchase only index (dark […]

Q3 2024 QCEW suggests employment was considerably weaker than we thought last year – by New Deal democrat This will be income, spending, and housing week, but that won’t start until tomorrow. While there’s no news today, there was an important update to employment data last week; namely, the QCEW for Q3 of last year. […]

 – by New Deal democrat Existing home sales have been flat in the general range of 3.85 -4.10 million annualized for two years, and that continued in January, as on a monthly basis sales decreased -4.9% to 40.8 million from an upwardly revised December number of 4.29 million annualized: The slightly better numbers in the […]

– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims. These are a short leading labor market indicator. Also, it is likely that the firings in the federal labor force will shortly be reflected in this data. This week initial claims rose 5,000 to 219,000, while the four week average declined -1,000 […]

Housing construction declines further into recessionary territory  – by New Deal democrat As promised, economic data resumed this morning, and with it my extended posts. First, the usual point that housing is a very important and leading sector of the economy, typically turning down more than a year before a recession begins. And with higher […]

Data drought continues  – by New Deal democrat There is no new significant economic data today, and I am on the road. Meaningful reporting should resume tomorrow with housing permits, starts, and construction. In the meantime, here is a look at a high frequency series I keep track of: Redbook retail sales, for the past […]