Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Manufacturing, construction, and job openings all show an economy under stress

Manufacturing, construction, and job openings all show an economy under stress – by New Deal democrat As usual, we begin another month with important manufacturing and construction data. Additionally, the JOLTS report for September was also released. The ISM manufacturing index has a very long and reliable history. Going back almost 75 years, the new orders […]

Personal income and spending for September

While I was away . . . Personal income and spending for September Real personal spending increased +0.3% in September, while real income increased less than 0.1%, rounding to unchanged: Since May 2021, after the last round of pandemic stimulus expired, real spending is up 3.3%; but real income is down -2.0%: Real personal spending […]

New Deal democrat’s weekly indicators for October 24 – 28

Weekly Indicators for October 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators Post is up at Seeking Alpha. Slowly even more indicators are deteriorating in several timeframes. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to date on the economy, and bring me a little reward for my […]

Q3 GDP: good news for now, bad news for the future

Q3 GDP: good news for now, bad news for the future  – by New Deal democrat I have to keep this note brief, since I am on the road. As you presumably already know, real GDP was positive for the Third Quarter, up 2.6% at an annual rate: Subject to revisions in the next several […]

The Treasury yield curve has now almost totally inverted

The Treasury yield curve has now almost totally inverted  – by New Deal democrat One of the few leading indicators not flashing red for recession has been the short end of the Treasury yield curve, which has been relentlessly positive – until now. While the 10 year minus 2 year Treasury spread has been negative […]

The tide has now turned as to house prices

The tide has now turned as to house prices Last month I wrote that the FHFA showed evidence that house prices had peaked, and that “since the FHFA has a tendency to turn slightly ahead of the Case Shiller index, this strongly suggests that a sharp deceleration in the Case Shiller index YoY will start […]

When will housing construction turn down? A fuller consideration

When will housing construction turn down? A fuller consideration  – by New Deal democrat No important economic news today. Also I am traveling this week, so there might be some light posting, as in, I might skip a day or two. But I very much want to see what is happening with house prices, which […]

New Deal democrat’s weekly indicators for October 17 – 21

Weekly Indicators for October 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. If you thought the long leading indicators couldn’t get any worse – well, they could. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to how the economy is doing right […]

Coronavirus dashboard for October 21: autumn lull continues, despite new subvariants

Coronavirus dashboard for October 21: the autumn lull continues, despite new subvariants  – by New Deal democrat No economic data today, so let’s update the status of COVID-19. We are currently in a relative lull, with confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all near or at low levels only matched or exceeded at mid-year 2021 and […]

September existing home sales and prices decline

September existing home sales and prices decline  – by New Deal democrat With the exception of their big impact on prices, I do not particularly pay attention to existing home sales. Their economic impact is small compared with the construction of new homes which may have spearheaded by companies like that New Home Builder in […]