Q3 2024 QCEW suggests employment was considerably weaker than we thought last year – by New Deal democrat This will be income, spending, and housing week, but that won’t start until tomorrow. While there’s no news today, there was an important update to employment data last week; namely, the QCEW for Q3 of last year. […]
– by New Deal democrat Existing home sales have been flat in the general range of 3.85 -4.10 million annualized for two years, and that continued in January, as on a monthly basis sales decreased -4.9% to 40.8 million from an upwardly revised December number of 4.29 million annualized: The slightly better numbers in the […]
– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims. These are a short leading labor market indicator. Also, it is likely that the firings in the federal labor force will shortly be reflected in this data. This week initial claims rose 5,000 to 219,000, while the four week average declined -1,000 […]
Housing construction declines further into recessionary territory – by New Deal democrat As promised, economic data resumed this morning, and with it my extended posts. First, the usual point that housing is a very important and leading sector of the economy, typically turning down more than a year before a recession begins. And with higher […]
Data drought continues – by New Deal democrat There is no new significant economic data today, and I am on the road. Meaningful reporting should resume tomorrow with housing permits, starts, and construction. In the meantime, here is a look at a high frequency series I keep track of: Redbook retail sales, for the past […]
– by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news today. Since I didn’t publish a link to my “Weekly Indicators” post up at Seeking Alpha over the weekend, here it is now. Left to its own devices, as I’ve written a number of times recently, the economy is in “steady as she goes” mode, with few […]
– by New Deal democrat It’s that time of month again for my favorite indicator for the consumption side of the economy: retail sales have been tracked for over 75 years. When they are lower YoY, that has historically been a good (not perfect) indicator that a recession is near. That’s because that same 75-year […]
– by New Deal democrat Now that we are well past the Holidays, seasonality has settled down and so have the comparisons for jobless claims. Initial claims declined -7,000 to 213,000 last week, and the four-week average declined -1,000 to 216,000. With the usual one week delay, continued claims declined -36,000 to 1.850 million: On […]
January CPI: a new paradigm, with the reappearance of some old suspects – by New Deal democrat Needless to say, January’s increase of 0.5% in consumer prices was not welcome. And there was a changing of the guard somewhat, as several of the old suspects (food and energy) made new appearances. Some of the spike […]
– by New Deal democrat While we are waiting for new economic data tomorrow, let me pick up on an issue I closed with yesterday: while manufacturing has turned down, goods production in the US economy is being held up by construction, and in particular residential construction. Given the severe hike in mortgage rates as well […]