Residential housing construction gives *very* mixed signals in December; recessionary red flag continues – by New Deal democrat The most lading components of the long leading housing sector rose in this morning’s report for December, while the most important “hard” economic datapoint continued its decline into recession territory. First let’s compare the most leading datapoint, […]
Typically, when I post New Deal Democrat; I will have the link to the post at the end of his economic commentaries. I also include a link to a previous commentary of his of the same topic. New Deal democrat follows the ups, downs, and stagnation of his topics. It is more work. However. I […]
– by New Deal democrat Since I posted earlier about why I follow jobless claims so closely, let me briefly restate why I pay a lot of attention to real retail sales. Retail sales have been tracked for over 75 years. When they are lower YoY, that has historically been a good (not perfect) indicator […]
A Refresher on Why I pay so much attention to them . . . – by New Deal democrat This might be a good time to reiterate why I post each week on jobless claims, and what my system is. Initial jobless claims in particular are a recognized leading indicator. In fact, they are one […]
– by New Deal democrat December consumer prices indicate that we are leaving the immediate post-covid era and seeing a rebalancing of sectors, as sectors that declined sharply in the past several years rebound. As in November, the only two categories of “hot” numbers showing price increases of 4.0% a year or more are two […]
Producer prices join the parade of yellow flags – by New Deal democrat I generally don’t pay too much attention to producer prices, but there are a couple of exceptions. One exception is that sometimes producer prices lead consumer prices by a number of months. That hasn’t been the case recently. But the other exception […]
Scenes from the last employment report of Joe Biden’s Presidency – by New Deal democrat Friday’s jobs report was an excellent one for Joe Biden’s Presidential term to end on. In the past 4 years, 17 million jobs have been created. Even if we take out 2021 as being a COVID rebound year, in the […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The big changes this week were the sharp increases in long term interest rates, along with similarly sharp increases in commodity prices and the US$. Some of this is due to a feeling that the economy is running “hotter” than recently thought, […]
– by New Deal democrat My theme for the past several years as to employment has been “deceleration,” as in a gradual cooldown from white hot to red hot to hot to warm. But at some point past “warm,” we get to lukewarm, and then cool, and then chilly. In other words, if it continues […]
Jobless claims still rocked by seasonality; native born unemployment rate of under 4% forecast – by New Deal democrat Due to today’ official Day of Mourning for the late President Jimmy Carter, initial and continuing claims were released yesterday, but since I didn’t cover it then, let’s catch up now on the normal day. It […]