November consumer inflation remains well-contained except for the two most lagging sectors of shelter and transportation services – by New Deal democrat Let me pick up where I left off yesterday discussing trends in consumer prices. One thing I have done every month for the last couple of years is to review all the categories […]

 – by New Deal democrat No economic news again today. Tomorrow we will get the CPI report for November. As to which, I have read a few posts in which the claim is made that inflation, especially core inflation, is picking up again. It certainly could happen, but in my opinion the evidence for such a […]

 – by New Deal democrat Most of the commentary about Friday’s jobs report for November was positive. By contrast, my summary – in which I averaged the two last reports to take into account the hurricane whipsaw – was much more cautious, as were the takes by a few other commentators I respect, like Ernie Tedeschi. […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This week whipsawed the data that was heavily influenced by Thanksgiving week.  The tone of the short leading and coincident data remains positive. The negativity of much of the long leading data is becoming more problematic. As usual, clicking over and reading […]

November jobs report: the expected monthly rebound masks deeper declining trends  – by New Deal democrat To understand this month’s jobs report, let’s start with last month’s, where I wrote that “there were some signs of real weakness in this report that do not appear to be hurricane-related. But Hurricane Milton, as well as the […]

Jobless claims: neutral – with an extra grain of salt  – by New Deal democrat As I cautioned last weekend in my “Weekly Indicators” update, we have entered that period of the year where Holiday seasonality means take everything with at least a little grain of salt. For example, this year Thanksgiving was almost one […]

ISM non-manufacturing shows that services continue to power the economy forward. Are they inflationary?  – by New Deal democrat Because services are roughly 3/4’s of the economy, I now pay a lot of attention to the economically weighted average of the ISM manufacturing and services indexes. Since the accession of China to normal trading status […]

 – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. It also is a slight leading indicators for both initial jobless claims and unemployment; and for forecasting wage growth as well.  Like many other statistics concerning jobs, the […]

 – by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data begins with the ISM manufacturing index, and with a one month delay, construction spending. Because manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, and was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three […]

 – by New Deal democrat Let me finish catching up this week with a quick look at personal income and spending, which were reported on Wednesday. The “big” takeaway I’ve seen elsewhere is that inflation picked up, and maybe will complicate the Fed’s task. But I don’t see where it’s such a big deal. The […]