– by New Deal democrat I suspect that both hurricanes as well as mortgage rates somewhat distorted all of the housing reports for October. Last week with existing home sales I noted that “While sales remained in range, price appreciation increased and the pace of inventory accumulation decreased.“ There was something of a mirror image […]
If you have been reading New Deal democrat all along, you will remember NDd’s commentary on October 23rd (the link is below) discussing the possible stall of corporate profits. Maybe it is an easy call and maybe not. There are negatives to corporate profits stalling. Read on . . . – by New Deal democrat […]
– by New Deal democrat Let me start to update this week’s data with jobless claims. Initial claims fell another -2,000 to 213,000, the lowest since last May. The four-week moving average declined -1,250 to 217,000, also a six-month low. With the usual one-week lag, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.907 million: As with one […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Briefly . . . With the hurricane-induced weakness past, the short term forecast has improved to very positive. At the same time, while a few series have whipsawed the coincident nowcast to a neutral status. Importantly, consumer spending still remains strong. As […]
– by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s report on existing home sales indicated, at least for one month, a pause or even reversal in the previous trend of abating price increases and increased inventory. While existing home sales are not nearly so important to the economy as new home sales, to the extent that home buyers […]
– by New Deal democrat This week’s jobless claims reflect a little more complex scenario than usual, because the hurricane effects have disappeared from initial claims and their four week average, but likely are affecting continued claims, and are also likely to have a negative impact for the unemployment rate in the next jobs report. […]
– by New Deal democrat No data today, but since it is mainly a housing week, let me pick up on a topic I discussed at the end of yesterday’s post; namely, if housing does indeed forecast an oncoming recession, what should we expect next in that sector? To cut to the chase, ultimately we […]
– by New Deal democrat Housing data for October, like that for September, has to be viewed with an asterisk, due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Since the effects of both were in the South Census Region, where relevant in the analysis below I will also discuss the numbers excluding that region. The most leading […]
– by New Deal democrat Starting tomorrow we get to the time of month when the data on the important long leading sector of housing begins to be reported. So let me update a few important points about where this sector is likely going and its effects on the economy. As we probably all know […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. More the recent ‘same’ this week: short term and coincident indicators are a little noisy, but continue to say the economic OK. Meanwhile the longer leading indicators are mixed and weighing on future growth. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring […]