– by New Deal democrat Last month I started by report on construction spending by writing “ Construction spending for October also came in generally positive. On a nominal basis, total construction spending rose 0.4% to a new record, and residential spending rose 1.5%.” Well, you can forget that, because this month was one of those […]

 – by New Deal democrat Welcome to 2025! The data this year starts out with jobless claims for the last week of 2024, which of course is heavily influenced by seasonality. The news was mainly good this week, with claims declining -9,000 to 211,000, the lowest number in over half a year. The four week […]

 – by New Deal democrat I was on vacation through the weekend, and since there has been no significant economic data in the post-Christmas lull, I decided to continue to play hooky. After tomorrow, on Thursday the 2025 data will start in earnest, so expect a return to form later this week. In the meantime, […]

 – by New Deal democrat This Christmas week initial claims declined -1,000 to 219,000. The four week average rose 1,000 to 226,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims 46,000 to 1.910 million, the highest number in over 3 years: On the YoY% basis more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 2.8%, […]

 – by New Deal democrat I’ve been looking at new and existing home sales more in tandem recently, as we are looking for a rebalancing of the market, with prices abating in existing home sales and inventory increasing, vs. new houses where prices have been slightly declining. Additionally, as usual let me start with the important […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The yield curve is now almost entirely un-inverted, but in part because longer term interest rates have risen (not such a good thing). Meanwhile a variety of short leading indicators stepped on rakes this week, which may be noise, or may be […]

 – by New Deal democrat Adjusted for inflation, both personal income and spending came in positive once again in November. But under the hood, the report looked a little tepid, and while it certainly wasn’t recessionary, the data was consistent with what I would expect later in the cycle of an expansion. For the record, real […]

Jobless claims: with a dash of seasonality salt, trending towards weakness  – by New Deal democrat As expected, jobless claims declined from one week ago, as the delayed Thanksgiving week seasonality moved out of the numbers. Initial claims declined -22,000 to 220,000, while the four week moving average increased 1,250 to 225,500. With the typical […]

 – by New Deal democrat The very important construction data from the long leading housing sector was mixed this morning for November. The most leading datapoint, permits, increased 86,000 on an annualized basis to 1.505 million. Even more importantly, single family permits, which have the least noise and most signal of any of the datapoints, […]

Industrial production continues to slide  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined for the third month in a row in November, down -0.1%, while October was revised downward another -0.2%. Manufacturing production on the other hand increased 0.2% in November, but September and October were revised downward a combined -0.3%, so on net this was another […]