Signs and portents of an employment slowdown and a near-term recession – by New Deal democrat I continue to believe that a recession – possibly a deep if relatively brief one – is likely to start early next year. As I’ve mentioned before, this isn’t just an academic exercise; recessions by definition feature jobs and […]
September jobs report: a very positive report within a framework of continued deceleration As I have written many, many times, consumption leads employment; and the near stagnation in real sales and spending signaled that we should expect weaker monthly employment reports, with both fewer new jobs and a higher unemployment rate. In September, the former happened; […]
Jobless claims rise; the gas price low is probably ending – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims may have ended their recent downtrend. Initial claims rose 19,000 to 219,000 from last week’s 5 month low. The 4 week average rose 250 from its 4 month low to 206,500. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased […]
Coronavirus dashboard for October 5: An autumn lull as COVID-19 evolves towards seasonal endemicity – by New Deal democrat Back in August I highlighted some epidemiological work by Trevor Bedford about what endemic COVID is likely to look like, based on the rate of mutations and the period of time that previous infection makes a recovered […]
August JOLTS report: the game of reverse musical chairs in the jobs market is ending – by New Deal democrat Since early this year I’ve been making the point that, because of the pandemic, there have been several million fewer persons looking for work, leaving a huge number of unfilled job vacancies, particularly in the […]
September manufacturing new orders and August construction spending both turn down – by New Deal democrat As usual, we begin another month and another quarter with important manufacturing and construction data. The ISM manufacturing index has a very long and reliable history. Going back almost 75 years, the new orders index has always fallen below 50 […]
August personal income and spending: major downward revisions overwhelm modestly positive monthly gains – by New Deal democrat This morning’s personal income and spending report for August was positive month over month both in nominal and real terms, but the major story was in the revisions. Personal spending is the essentially the opposite side of […]
The positive trend in jobless claims continues For still another week, initial jobless claims continued their recent downtrend. Initial claims declined -16,000 to 193,000, a 5 month low. The 4 week average also declined -8,750 to a new 4 month low of 207,000. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, declined -29,000 to a 2.5 month low […]
Interest rates, the yield curve, and the Fed chasing a Phantom (lagging) Menace There’s a lot going on with interest rates in the past few days. Mortgage rates have increased above 7%: This is the highest rate since 2008. Needless to say, if it lasts for any period of time it will further damage the […]
House price indexes: more evidence of a summer peak – by New Deal democrat The Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes were updated through July (technically, the average of May through July) this morning. Ordinarily I do not pay them too much mind, but this year they are very important in confirming a peak in […]