Gas and oil price update: good news and bad news We’ll get some important house price information tomorrow, but there is no economic news of significance today, so let’s update gas and oil prices. As indicated in the title, there’s good news and bad news. I’ll start with the bad news first. According to GasBuddy, […]
Weekly Indicators for September 19 – 23 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators column is up at Seeking Alpha. For the third week in a row, interest rates increased, and gas prices, along with the prices of other commodities, tumbled. While the decline in gas prices is good, the downturn in […]
Focusing on the short end of the yield curve – by New Deal democrat When most analysts talk about yield curve inversions, they typically mean a measure of the 10 year bond vs. a shorter maturity like 3 month or 2 years. These certainly have merit – in fact the 10 year minus 2 year inversion […]
Jobless claims: the positive trend continues – by New Deal democrat For yet another week, initial jobless claims continued their reversal from had been in an almost relentless uptrend from spring through early August. This week initial claims rose -5,000 to 213,000 from a revised 3 month low of 208,000, while the 4 week average […]
August existing home sales: confirmation that house prices have peaked Existing home sale by themselves are not that important economically, since there is a mere transfer in ownership, rather than a complete build. But they can help verify turning points, and in this case very importantly as to prices. But first, sales declined slightly (-2,000) […]
Housing: permits and average starts decline, while construction remains at peak The data on housing construction this month was mixed. While starts rose, their 3 month average, at 1.511 million annualized, was the lowest since September through November 2020. Meanwhile total and single family permits both declined, both to the lowest since June 2020: This […]
Coronavirus dashboard for September 19: no, the pandemic is *not* over – by New Deal democrat Contrary to the statement by President Biden last night, the coronavirus pandemic is *not* over. First, here’s the long term look at infectious particles in wastewater by Biobot, compared with confirmed cases: Levels of COVID in wastewater continue to […]
The Ukraine war spike in energy prices has completely unwound – by New Deal democrat I plan on putting up a Coronavirus update later today, because there have been a few significant developments (No, the pandemic is *NOT* over) particularly as they relate to the next few months. Tomorrow and Wednesday, we get our first […]
Weekly Indicators for September 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Gas prices have continued to decline, with almost the entire Ukraine war spike gone. Meanwhile Tuesday’s core CPI reading sent the bond market into a tizzy, with interest rates going back up to […]
Real aggregate payrolls and recessions – by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators for the overall economic health of the American working and middle classes is real aggregate payrolls for non-supervisory workers. This is kind of self-explanatory. Rather than measure hourly wages, this is the *total* amount of wages paid to non-supervisory workers, […]