Real retail sales on the cusp of breaking out of their multi-year doldrums – by New Deal democrat Consumption leads employment, and as I reiterated yesterday real per capita retail sales has a history as a long leading indicator. Which means that retail sales for November, which rose 0.7% nominally, continues its recent strong string […]
– by New Deal democrat I haven’t “officially” updated my take on the long leading indicators – those that forecast a recession at least one year beforehand – in almost two years. That’s because the hurricane force tailwind of the supply-side deflationary unlinking of the global supply chain completely swamped everything else. So if I […]
Weekly Indicators for December 9 – 13 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While the short-term forecast and nowcast have remained relatively constant, the “action” has been in the long leading indicators – some things good, some bad. The biggest thing that happened this week is that the […]
– by New Deal democrat With the update on inflation earlier this week, let’s take a look a real average wages and real aggregate payrolls. Plus there is a significant update to my yellow flag caution on the employment situation. First, nominally nonsupervisory wages rose slightly under 0.3% in November, while consumer prices rose slightly […]
– by New Deal democrat As is so often the case this time of year, seasonality likely played havoc with this week’s new jobless claims. Last year Thanksgiving was November 23rd; this year it was the 28th, putting it in a different week for many statistics. So the jobless claims this morning were for the […]
November consumer inflation remains well-contained except for the two most lagging sectors of shelter and transportation services – by New Deal democrat Let me pick up where I left off yesterday discussing trends in consumer prices. One thing I have done every month for the last couple of years is to review all the categories […]
– by New Deal democrat No economic news again today. Tomorrow we will get the CPI report for November. As to which, I have read a few posts in which the claim is made that inflation, especially core inflation, is picking up again. It certainly could happen, but in my opinion the evidence for such a […]
– by New Deal democrat Most of the commentary about Friday’s jobs report for November was positive. By contrast, my summary – in which I averaged the two last reports to take into account the hurricane whipsaw – was much more cautious, as were the takes by a few other commentators I respect, like Ernie Tedeschi. […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This week whipsawed the data that was heavily influenced by Thanksgiving week. The tone of the short leading and coincident data remains positive. The negativity of much of the long leading data is becoming more problematic. As usual, clicking over and reading […]
November jobs report: the expected monthly rebound masks deeper declining trends – by New Deal democrat To understand this month’s jobs report, let’s start with last month’s, where I wrote that “there were some signs of real weakness in this report that do not appear to be hurricane-related. But Hurricane Milton, as well as the […]