A respite in manufacturing in August, continued decline in construction in July As usual, the new month’s first data is for manufacturing and construction. Here’s a look at each. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In August, after two months of […]
In which I parse and war-game the Trump “special master” litigation And now, for something completely different .. .. While I have zero special knowledge about Federal criminal procedure, I *do* pay very close attention to “tells” in human behavior. (See, for example, my parsing of Bill Barr’s ‘summary’ of Mueller’s report summary, in which […]
June house price indexes show no peak yet; no respite likely in the “official” consumer housing measure Yesterday the Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes were updated through June (technically, the average of April through June. Because the Case Shiller index is not seasonally adjusted, the best way to show them is YoY. Here […]
July JOLTS report: the broad deceleration in the game of reverse musical chairs (generally) continues I have been writing since early this year that, because of the pandemic, there have been several million fewer persons looking for work, leaving a huge number of unfilled job vacancies, particularly in the face of a roughly 10% higher […]
Continued good news for consumers on gas prices There’ll be lots of economic news starting tomorrow, but for today let’s pause and take a look at the energy situation. Here’s a look at oil prices in the past year up through yesterday from CNBC: And here’s a look over the same time period from Gas […]
Weekly Indicators for August 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. In the past couple of weeks, the decline in gas prices has slowed considerably. Once they stabilize, the underlying economic fundamentals should reassert themselves. In the meantime, there are cross currents of interest rates and manufacturing orders, […]
July personal income and spending: more modestly good fallout from lower gas prices There was more good fallout from the recent decline in gas prices in today’s July report on personal income and spending. Personal income rose 0.2% for the month nominally, and nominal spending rose 0.1%. But because the relevant measure of inflation, the […]
Jobless claims: put the recession on hold! (For now) For the last several months, there had been nearly a relentless slow increase in new jobless claims. That trend has broken, at least for now. Initial jobless claims declined by 2,000 to 243,000. The 4 week average, however, increased by 1,500 to 247,000. Continuing claims declined […]
Coronavirus dashboard for August 24: the post BA.5 wave respite In general, things are headed in the right direction for now in the pandemic. BIobot’s latest wastewater update from one week ago shows a 1/3rd decline in COVID particles nationwide. Here’s the regional breakdown: The West, spearheaded by CA, is down 50%, and the South […]
July new home sales signal a recession is near Let’s start with reminders about new home sales data: 1. It is very noisy 2. It is heavily revised. But 3. It usually leads at peaks and troughs. With that in mind, unless today’s new home sales data for July is revised away, it is very […]