– by New Deal democrat Today in the US is officially Veterans Day, in which we salute the service of all veterans. But it started – and still continues in some countries – as Remembrance Day, a somber memorial to all those who were killed in World War 1, which ended on November 11, 1918. […]
– by New Deal democrat This is not a formal post about Tuesday’s election. But with the benefit of “revealed preference” a/k/a 20/20 hindsight, it’s pretty clear that the Fed rate hikes were an important part of why Kamala Harris and the Democrats failed. Because we may or may not be experiencing a “soft landing” […]
– by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims continued their return to normalcy this week, as they increased 3,000 to 221,000. The four week moving average declined -9,750 to 227,250, which is tied for the lowest number except for two weeks in five months. Continuing claims, with the typical one week delay, rose 39,000 to […]
– by New Deal democrat [I was busy doing my civic duty the past few days. I’ll have something to say about the election at some point later, but not now.] Yesterday the ISM services report came in very strong for the second month in a row, with the headline at 56.0 and the more […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There’s always some noise in the high frequency data, and this week that noise was in the positive direction, as almost all of the coincident data shows strength. On the other hand (and this is the economy we’re talking about, there’s always […]
– by New Deal democrat As usual, next week there will be a dearth of economic data, so I’ll report on construction spending then. In the meantime, we got another poor ISM manufacturing report, with the total index declining to 46.5, the lowest reading this year, while the more leading new orders component increased 1.0 […]
– by New Deal democrat Well, I warned you . . . . I expected a downdraft from the hurricanes, especially Milton, and also the Boeing strike. And boy did we get one! Let me be clear: if there were no special factors, this report would be recessionary, period. And there were some signs of […]
– by New Deal democrat Briefly, NDd is one of the longtime posters at Angry Bear. I have known him for a long time and enjoy reading his commentaries on Labor, Employment, and Income. They are timely reveals and expressing the issues with various parts of the economy. ~~~~~~~ The monthly personal income and spending […]
– by New Deal democrat It appears that, as I suspected earlier this month, the big YoY jump in initial jobless claims was largely due to the effects of the hurricanes, and is now abating. First, for the week initial claims declined another -12,000 to 216,000. The four week moving average declined -2,250 to 236,500. […]
– by New Deal democrat As usual, I’ll take a quick look at this morning’s headline GDP numbers for Q3 before passing on to my more important focus on the release’s leading components. Real GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q3. Just like Q2, this is a perfectly good number in line with the […]