First comments on Q2 GDP: no, we’re not in a recession (yet) – by New Deal democrat When the negative print on Q1 GDP first came out three months ago, I wrote: “yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession…. But the big culprits were non-core items. Personal consumption expenditures, even […]
New home prices may have peaked after all – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote, “The median price of a new home increased 1.7% in June (not seasonally adjusted), and remained sharply higher YoY at 15.1%.” That’s true, but it wasn’t complete. The 15.1% figure is from the quarterly average. On a monthly basis, […]
Coronavirus dashboard for July 27: likely at or past the BA.4&5 peak Let’s start with Biobot, since wastewater doesn’t lie. The bad news is, that it shows a nearly 50% increase between June 29 and July 20. The good news is, in the last week of that period, between July 13 and July 20, it […]
New home sales continue to fall sharply, while prices for both new and existing homes continues to increase sharply New home sales declined further in June to 590,000 annualized and May was revised sharply lower as well: This was the lowest number since the pandemic lockdown month of April 2020, and before that since December […]
Book notes on Reconstruction No economic news of note today, and as usual insufficient Covid reporting over the weekend to make an update of that worthwhile, so let me dig out something from the back burner that I wanted to do for myself. Last year I read Eric Foner’s 600+ page tome on Reconstruction, and […]
Weekly Indicators for July 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat I wasn’t able to get to this link yesterday, but my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The situation with the leading indicators continues to ever so slowly deteriorate. But there is some good news as well, as gas prices […]
Coronavirus dashboard for July 22: the BA.4&5 wavette has (probably) peaked – by New Deal democrat No economic news today, so let’s update the COVID situation. As of yesterday, nationwide (dotted line below) cases declined slightly to 123,000. Cases have been slightly elevated from their previous 100-110,000 range for several weeks, but appear to have […]
Increasing trend in jobless claims continues; on track to give recession warning in November Initial jobless claims rose another 7,000 to 251,000 last week, an 8 month high. The 4 week average rose 4,500 to 240,500, a 7+ month high. And continuing claims also rose 51,000 to 1,384,000, which is 78,000 above their 50 year […]
Existing home sales now down 25% from peak; but price increases keep steamrolling on Although existing home sales are less economically important than new home sales, what has been happening with their prices, given the experience of the housing bubble and bust 15 years ago, is of added importance. The simple summary is that sales […]
Sharp downturn in June housing starts confirms earlier negative signals from permits, sales, and mortgage applications For the last few months, I have highlighted the record number of housing units that had permits but had not yet been started, pointing out that it distorts the economic signal. Last month I closed with the statement: “The […]