– by New Deal democrat The weekly news from jobless claims continues to be good. The hypotheses that the summer increase was unresolved post-pandemic seasonality, plus the several week spike post-Beryl was all about Texas, both have held up very well. And that has continued to be the case against more challenging YoY comparisons as the […]

 – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. In July, it painted a picture of what looks like pretty relentless deterioration. The theme for three of the four data series I track was the same: job […]

 – by New Deal democrat As usual we start the month with two important reports on the leading sectors of  manufacturing and construction. First, the ISM manufacturing index showed contraction yet again, with the headline number “less negative” by way of increasing from 46.8 to 47.2, and the more leading new orders subindex declining sharply […]

 – by New Deal democrat On this Labor Day, it is fitting to update the economic state of ordinary workers. There is a variety of economic data series to track both average and median wages: Without further ado, here is the update for all four. Average hourly wages are updated through July; the other three […]

 – by New Deal democrat My detailed “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were two noteworthy events this past week. First, the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread briefly normalized during the week, on Wednesday, and ended the week only inverted by 1 basis point (.01%). Second, almost *all* of the coincident indicators are […]

 – by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report of all, except for jobs. That’s becuase it tells us so much about the state of the consumer economy. It is the raw material for several important coincident indicators that the NBER looks at, as well as several […]

 – by New Deal democrat The news about initial and continuing jobless claims was almost all good this week. Initial claims declined -2,000 to 231,000, and the four-week moving average declined -4,750 to 231,500, the lowest since early June. Continuing claims increased by 13,000 to 1.868 million: As usual, more important for forecasting purposes are […]

 – by New Deal democrat Over the past year, I have downgraded the importance of manufacturing indicators as a forecasting tool for the economy as a whole. This post explores why and suggests a revised tool that may be a helpful short leading indicator. On Monday, durable goods orders rebounded sharply in July from their […]

Repeat home sale indexes show continued deceleration in house price inflation, more comfort room for Fed to cut rates  – by New Deal democrat This morning, we got the repeat home sales price data from the FHFA and Case Shiller. And the news was good, especially in the slightly leading FHFA Index. This is of […]

Weekly Indicators for August 19 – 23 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This week, for the first time in several years, the number of long leading indicators improved just enough for me to move the rating from “negative” to “neutral.” And the short leading indicators […]